BMO predicts above-average GDP growth for Manitoba

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This article was published 09/10/2012 (4789 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

BMO is forecasting GDP (gross domestic product) growth in Manitoba exceeding the national average this year and next year with a strong rebound from the agricultural sector leading the charge.

The bank is pegging growth in 2012 at 2.6 per cent compared to a national rate of 2.2 per cent.

It would make Manitoba’s growth rate this year third-fastest behind only Alberta and Saskatchewan and a marked step up from Manitoba’s anemic 1.1 per cent growth last year.

Next year it’s predicting 2.3 per cent in Manitoba and 2.0 in Canada. Those metrics would make Manitoba the fifth-fastest-growing province in 2013.

BMO is more cautious than RBC whose forecast came out last month calling for 3.3 per cent growth in Manitoba’s GDP in 2012 and another 3.2 per cent increase in 2013.

Although there’s quite a spread, RBC is by far the most bullish of all the private-sector forecasters when it comes in Manitoba.

In addition to the increase in agricultural output, BMO notes manufacturing continues to recover from the recession, with shipments of machinery and transportation equipment seeing solid growth in recent months.

And even though it’s small share of overall economic output, real oil and gas output rose at a near-18 per cent annualized rate over the past 7 years, the fastest pace of any province.

martin.cash@freepress.mb.ca