Playoffs a real possibility for red-hot Jets

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 23/01/2015 (3941 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

IN the Winnipeg Jets dressing room and sprinkled in the coverage of the team, a very optimistic statistic has popped up in the last couple of weeks.

Fans and even some reporters have started quoting as gospel the numbers offered by www.sportsclubstats.com because the projections about the Jets have suddenly become rosy.

They’re rosy, of course, because the Jets are winning games, now five in a row and 6-0-1 in the last seven.

The website projects the Jets have as much as a 92.4 per cent chance of qualifying for the post-season for the first time since the 2011 relocation from Atlanta.

The site is run and programmed by Ken Roberts, who is based in Raleigh, N.C.

It has been around for a number of years and the Free Press has regularly quoted the odds it offered during the first three seasons of the NHL’s relocation here.

At the NHL’s all-star break, the site offers two assessments.

One, in its weighted average that considers and factors in data from games already played this season to look at what’s left. Here, the Jets are projected to have a 92.4 per cent chance of qualifying for the Stanley Cup playoffs in the Western Conference.

Two, the Jets are rated as 86.4 per cent likely to make the playoffs in a strict 50-50 scenario, meaning past results are not considered and every team is given a pure coin-flip chance to win each remaining game.

When using the odds calculated by the website, it’s important to understand what you’re seeing.

What it is:

• A sophisticated computer program that runs outcome scenarios for various leagues, including, but not limited to, football (NFL), baseball (MLB), basketball (NBA) and the NHL.
• The number of outcomes is, of course, a mind-boggling number. Considering 30 NHL teams playing 82 games each and all the possible combinations of results and you have a number that’s realistically incomprehensible.
• Thorough. Consider this: the program found more than 202 million ways for the results of the remaining Jets games that will see the team finish 18-12-4 in its last 34 games.
• Timely. The site is updated almost instantaneously with results and provides excellent comparisons and clearly shows the trends.
• Multi-faceted. As well as odds for making the playoffs, you can also find the complete list of odds to finish with a certain number of points on the season, or in a given position in the standings. For instance, the simulation shows that based on everything up to today, the Jets’ most likely playoff opponent would be the Anaheim Ducks.

What it is not:

• A guarantee. Of any kind. If it were, no league would bother playing the games.
• Wise to intangibles. Roberts offers caveats on the site about his program, including: “The algorithm does not know about things like trades, injuries, and matchups. It does not know that a team has started believing in themselves.”
• He also says: “The code could have bugs. The nice thing is the numbers are broken down such that bugs don’t stay hidden long. If you find a new one I’ll buy you a beer. Domestic. Milwaukee’s Best, Schaefer, something like that.”
• The program also doesn’t know coaching, chemistry or even history beyond what’s taken place this season. For instance, it will not consider that the Jets/Thrashers have been a perennial fading team in March and April in each season since making the playoffs in 2007.

So with that, a few other words of caution.

The program doesn’t know what will happen and doesn’t claim to predict what will. Obviously, the longer the season goes and the closer each team gets to its 82nd game, the odds become more meaningful.

For instance, you’d be in error if you thought just because the program declared the Toronto Maple Leafs a 95.2 per cent sure thing for the playoffs after their win on Dec. 16, that was that.

You ought to take note the number today is 4.5 per cent.

All the program does is run game-outcome scenarios, millions of them, and with each set of game scenarios for each team, then assesses the final standings in each case.

Be assured the scenario that saw the Leafs dive more than 90 per cent in these probabilities in five weeks was among the outcomes, just not the most common one.

Similarly, be aware the Jets were just a 20.3 per cent shot to make the playoffs after losing to Tampa Bay on Oct. 24.

An eight-game points streak that followed took the number to 56 per cent. The number went below 60 per cent when the Jets lost in Arizona two weeks ago.

In the weighted average, today’s 92.4 per cent chance that has come from a five-game winning streak is Winnipeg’s high-water mark this season.

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Where does it go from here?

The actual outcome will be one among the millions of possibilities sportsclubstats.com considers.

You actually have to play the games to find out which.

tim.campbell@freepress.mb.ca