5 story lines

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 16/03/2015 (3853 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

1. PUT yourself in Jets head coach Paul Maurice’s suit for a moment and answer this question: Who starts in goal for Winnipeg Tuesday against the San Jose Sharks in the next biggest game of the season?

Ondrej Pavelec may have whiffed on that three-time-zones-away Barret Jackman dump-in with 63 seconds left in the rally-gone-sour loss in St. Louis, but has also stopped 37 of the last 39 shots he’s faced in his last three appearances (.949 save percentage) and was steady in Saturday’s win over Tampa Bay.

Countering that is this: Pavelec is just 7-6-3 at the MTS Centre this year with a 2.71 goals-against average and .897 save percentage and was just 11-14-5 at home a year ago.

Michael Hutchinson, by comparison, is 10-5-2 at home this year with a .922 save percentage and 2.12 GAA.

Those numbers may be compelling enough to have Maurice leaning to Hutchinson, but Pavelec’s bounce-back Saturday in Tampa was impressive. His reaction in the days after the Jackman goal left yours truly cringing — pointing out he hadn’t played in three weeks had a certain whiney feel to it — but the Jets need both of their netminders to be all-world in the final 13 games, especially given all the bodies in sick bay, if they are going to have a sniff at the playoffs.

 

2. FUNNY how so many are now writing off Hutchinson as a bona fide No. 1 now his numbers have dipped dramatically in the last little while. Before the all-star break Hutchinson led the NHL with a .935 save percentage. Since then? In the 15 games since the break he has a .878 save percentage and has been yanked twice in his last four starts. But consider this: Hutchinson has made just 37 starts in his short NHL career and is 22-10-5 with a 2.34 GAA and .916 save percentage. FYI: The league average this year in both categories is 2.54 and .914.

All of this will only make the 2015 training camp that much more compelling, what with Connor Hellebuyck standing on his head for a mediocre team in St. John’s (he’s been in net for 27 of their 29 wins and has a .925 save percentage), with the extremes in Hutchinson’s game this year and Pavelec due to make $4.25 million next season.

 

3. THE book on Jiri Tlusty when Jets GM Kevin Cheveldayoff sent two draft picks to Carolina to acquire him Feb. 25 went something like this: Streaky scorer, inconsistent compete level, capable defensively. And that might just be the perfect description of what the Jets have seen of his seven games in their colours. Tlusty has assists in each of his last two games, but has yet to score. That continues an ugly trend for the Czech winger: He had 10 goals through the end of November this year with the Hurricanes, but has just three in the 36 games since.

We’ve broached this subject before, but it’s still worthy of debate: With Andrew Ladd and Dustin Byfuglien entering their option years, with Mark Scheifele, Jacob Trouba and Adam Lowry having just one season left on their entry-level deals — and all due for raises — what do the Jets do with their crop of unrestricted free agents?

Michael Frolik has been a valuable and versatile Jet since he first landed here, Drew Stafford’s game has been steady and Lee Stempniak has been OK. Tlusty’s play, frankly, has generated nothing more than a shrug of the shoulders. Jim Slater, T.J. Galiardi, Matt Halischuk and Adam Pardy are the other UFAs. Something’s got to give, because Cheveldayoff doesn’t have that much money to throw around and there are prospects ready to push for roster spots next fall.

 

4. THE prospect connection leads to another talking point: What do the Jets do with Nik Ehlers next season?

Ehlers has 99 points (37G, 62A) in just 48 games this season with the Halifax Mooseheads, tying him for third in QMJHL league scoring (heading into Sunday). He flashed his skill during Jets Development Camp, then the Young Stars Tournament and main camp last fall before being sent back to junior — and the Danish national junior team. The extra year in junior served him well, but another — next winter — might serve just the opposite, because he’ll have outgrown the calibre of play. He stands to get bigger and stronger simply with age, but he’s not going to morph into a body-builder on skates, either. So, it’s the big club or back to the Mooseheads next fall for the 19-year-old Dane, meaning the Jets might want to leave some roster wiggle room for him.

 

5. USED this line last year, but will beat it again here: The Jets had best beware the slides of March.

The Jets are 3-3 this month, but were just 4-7-4 in March last year when they disappeared from the playoff race.

 

FYI

It may be of small consolation for Jets fans watching their squad take the ice minus their MVP in Dustin Byfuglien, their No. 1 centre in Bryan Little, a power-play specialist/second-line winger in Mathieu Perreault, a reborn Tyler Myers and the revelation that was Ben Chiarot’s play before his hand injury.

But these are numbers to munch on: the Jets rank 15th in the NHL in man-games lost due to injury (source: mangameslost.com) at 174, well back of Columbus at 439.

 

Strange, but true

The Jets have won the faceoff battle in just 28 of their 69 games this season. Interestingly, in those 28 games in which they were superior on the dot, the Jets’ record is just 11-12-5.

Winnipeg also won games this year in which their forwards were also manhandled in faceoffs:

• Won 2-1 vs. Boston on Dec. 19, despite losing 64 per cent of the draws.
• Won 2-1 in Dallas on Jan. 15 after losing 69 per cent of the faceoffs.
• Won 5-2 over L.A. on March 1, despite winning only 35 per cent of the faceoffs.

Games in which the Jets dominated the circle, but lost:

• Lost 4-3 in OT vs. Philly on Dec. 21 even after winning 58 per cent of faceoffs.
• Lost 3-2 to San Jose on Jan. 5, despite winning 60 per cent of faceoffs.

 

Numbers game

• 16-8-3: The Jets’ record with Jay Harrison in the lineup (courtesy @JetsStatsGuy).
• 20.67: Average shots per game allowed by the Jets over the last seven.
• 499: Career games played for Michael Frolik. No. 500 would come Tuesday against the Sharks.
• 14: Career game-winning goals with the Jets/Thrashers for Blake Wheeler after he scored the decisive marker in Saturday’s win over Tampa Bay. That moves him into a tie for eighth place on the franchise’s career chart with Rich Peverley at 14. Ilya Kovalchuk leads at 40, followed by Bryan Little (23), Vyacheslav Kozlov (20), Andrew Ladd (19); Evander Kane (18), Marian Hossa (16) and Dustin Byfuglien (15).
• 4: Goals scored by Drew Stafford in the last six games for the Jets. He has five goals and three assists since joining the team.

 

Quotable

‘It happened so fast, I don’t think I could have done something else. Hopefully he’ll be good and I’m glad to hear he came back. I would never hit a guy like that and I think it was an accident. I felt like it changed the momentum and changed the game. I felt bad about doing what I did, I didn’t mean to do it’

— Lightning forward Nikita Kucherov, on his hit on Toby Enstrom that bloodied the Jets D-man. Kucherov received a boarding major and game misconduct.

 

Prospect watch

Nic Petan

Team: Portland Winterhawks

Position: C

Ht: 5-9. Wt: 175

Born: March 22, 1995

Drafted: By the Jets in the second round (43rd overall) in the 2013 NHL Draft.

Notable: Since returning from helping Canada win gold at the world juniors, Petan has 49 points (7G, 42A) in 23 games (prior to Sunday night’s game vs. Spokane)… In 247 regular-season games with the Winterhawks, Petan has an astonishing 351 points (108G, 243A)… Turns 20 next week and will likely be playing in Winnipeg next winter, either with the Jets or their relocated AHL franchise.

 

Jets this week

Three games, all at home: Tuesday vs. San Jose (7 p.m.); Thursday vs. St. Louis (7 p.m.); Saturday vs. Washington (6 p.m.)

Remaining: 13: Home – 8; Road – 5.

ed.tait@freepress.mb.ca Twitter: @WFPEdTait