Goodbye Danielle

Opinion

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 30/03/2015 (3844 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Is Saturday’s defeat of Alberta’s former Wildrose leader Danielle Smith, for the Progressive Conservative nomination of Highwood, a sign of things to come in Manitoba?

For Theresa Oswald in particular?

Smith will go down in political history as leading eight of her Wildrose colleagues to join the rival PCs last December.

Smith’s surprise defection from being leader of Alberta’s Official Opposition to sit with Premier Jim Prentice’s governing PCs is seen as the moment that truly defined her ambition, and on Saturday her ultimate defeat.

Her comeuppance, if you will. 

In Manitoba, does the same fate face Oswald?

She’s the one seen as leading a cabinet revolt against Premier Greg Selinger late last year and challenging him in a losing bid to lead the ruling NDP into the next election.

How can she now return to sit in the legislative assembly, as the NDP MLA for Seine River, with that stain against her, and expect everything to be hunky dory? 

Does she even want to come back?

The house resumes business on April 30 with the government’s new budget. If Oswald takes a seat in the backbenches, her presence will only serve as a distraction.

It’s conceivable that she’ll become, if she isn’t already, the de facto leader of the opposition. Whatever happens during the sitting, folks like me will be trying to ask her what she thinks, at times even before Selinger or PC Leader Brian Pallister.

The other thing is that if she decides to return to the assembly, she will not be embraced by many within her own party or welcomed with open arms to caucus. She’ll be the outsider, constantly reminded that she was the one who supposedly created this mess, and the one who lost.

Is this what Oswald really wants?

We also already know that Selinger is no further ahead in reconciling his divided party than he was after winning the leadership vote on March 8.

Realistically, given everything that’s been said and done by both sides in the NDP over that last eight months, it’s unlikely the party will heal itself anytime soon.

One also wonders if there is something else going on within the NDP for that anger to still be so visceral. What else don’t we know? What’s been left unsaid?

Yes, it’s entirely possible Selinger will lead the NDP to another election victory next year. The Tories need to capture a minimum of 10 more seats to form the next government, and that won’t be a slam dunk. NDP incumbency combined with voter apathy will not make Pallister’s job easy.

Does Oswald want to be a part of Selinger’s re-election campaign?

Do the NDP and voters of Seine River even want her to represent them?

I’ve asked a bunch of questions, no doubt questions Oswald herself has been asking.

She’s been largely unavailable to the media since losing the NDP leadership race and is spending time with her family.

With watching what happened to Smith in Alberta, perhaps Oswald is also asking what’s the more noble way for her to deal with her political lot in life: To resign on her own terms or risk having someone do it for her at a future constituency nomination meeting.

Not an easy decision, but one she needs to make, if she hasn’t already.