Jets no match for quack attack

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 24/04/2015 (3817 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Did you see that sweep coming?

Not many did, even though the pre-series data was there to suggest the Winnipeg Jets drew the worst possible playoff match-up when they were pitted against the top-seeded Anaheim Ducks.

Hindsight is, of course, perfect, so it’s incorrect to simply use it to invalidate opinions on the series before it started. They varied widely, as did the logic and analysis and it was all fair debate.

Many saw the Jets’ momentum late in the regular season as a large factor. Winnipeg went 10-3-1 down the stretch with a difficult schedule to reach 99 points and qualify for the playoffs for first time since the 2011 relocation.

Others looked at different statistics, including approximated possession numbers. Those that looked only there fell into a one-dimensional trap.

The Jets’ relative shortage of battle-tested playoff experience, especially recently, was reconciled by many as a non-factor, in part, because the Ducks’ recent playoff history is hardly inspiring.

As we said, all fair debate.

What was likely overlooked and not given near enough weight, as it turned out, were the head-to-head factors.

The season series was three wins in three games by the Ducks. The Jets did manage two overtime points, which did offer some hope. But all of those games were in the first 43 of the season.

Where the Ducks were superior, and it showed in a big way in the series, was third periods.

Anaheim set an NHL playoff record by becoming the first team to lead a series 3-0 after trailing after the second period in each of the first three games. The team also set a record for the least amount of time leading games — 38 minutes 26 seconds over all four games — in winning by a 4-0 sweep.

(The Jets, by the way, led games for a total of 68:45 in the series.)

None of this should have been surprising from a team that set NHL records in 2014-15 by posting 18 third-period victories in games in which it trailed at some point in the third period.

The Jets had five in that category.

Anaheim also tied an NHL record with 12 wins (12-23-0) in games in which it trailed after two periods. The Jets were 1-20-4.

In themselves, those two superior comeback numbers suggested explosiveness and resilience.

And it also suggested opportunity when you examine one of the Jets’ vulnerabilities this season, in particular one stat that’s not readily available.

Winnipeg’s game chart showed that in 2014-15, the team had its struggles in the final five minutes of third periods when results swung.

The Jets did protect many leads, putting to bed 30 of the 38 times they lead heading for the third period.

But there were 11 instances over the course of the season where the Jets surrendered a goal or goals in those final five minutes of regulation that either brought a Winnipeg lead to a tie game or a tie game to a deficit.

For regulation losses (two points lost) or overtime or shootout losses (one point lost) those caused, the Jets let 18 points get away in this manner.

On the positive side of this chart, the Jets had just three instances where they rallied in the final five minutes, for a gain of five points.

The net was 13 points lost based on the final five minutes where games changed, indicating a weakness.

And it was one the Ducks took advantage of in the series, twice affecting the lead in the final five minutes, not to mention doing the same thing in Game 1 in the final 6:39.

It would be wrong to leave out some evidence Winnipeg was resilient as well, but in different ways that didn’t translate into effectiveness in the series. Its defence, for example, was much improved during the regular season — becoming a top-10 team in goals against when it had never before been out of the bottom 10 — but it lost the battle to contain the Ducks.

And the Jets had a couple of other games where they allowed leads to slip in third periods but rallied, including twice in the final five minutes to retake the lead or gain a tie and win in a shootout or overtime.

But when it came to close games, the Ducks just had their number, as they proved in four outings in the playoffs.

During the regular season, that was their MO, at 33-1-7 in one-goal decisions, far and away the league’s best. Winnipeg was OK in that area, but more towards average at 19-7-13.

Finally, Winnipeg’s record within the Central this season was better, at a commendable 16-8-5 with no weak members, than its mark against the Pacific, 10-8-3 with two very weak teams.

When you’re the eighth and final team to claim a spot in the Western Conference, being choosey is not an option.

There’s no way to know if the Jets would have advanced in the Central Division bracket, but they didn’t match up near as poorly in any of these ways against their own division rivals.

Jets-Ducks turned out to be a bit of bad fortune for the underdogs who faced a very good team that played well.

While most were underselling it, this series turned out to be more of a true 1-8 matchup than most suspected.

tim.campbell@freepress.mb.ca