Poll shows NDP candidate Daniel Blaikie leading in Elmwood-Transcona

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 20/08/2015 (3712 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Elmwood-Transcona has had a Conservative MP since 2011 but a poll shows it hasn’t abandoned its once-orange stripes.

Leadnow, a national advocacy group determined to oust the Conservatives by organizing voting blocs, has identified the riding as a key swing riding in Manitoba, along with Winnipeg South Centre, currently held by Conservative MP Joyce Bateman.

Leadnow commissioned the poll by Environics, which was conducted using Interactive Voice Response. It shows NDP candidate Daniel Blaikie has 34 per cent of support among those surveyed, while incumbent Conservative candidate Lawrence Toet trails with 26 per cent support, and Liberal candidate Andrea Richardson-Lipon has 21 per cent support.

The survey was conducted via home telephone by contacting about 500 eligible voters in the riding between Aug. 15 and 16.

The margin of error for the poll is 4.3 per cent.

In order to defeat the Conservatives, voters must coalesce around the “progressive” candidate most likely to defeat the Conservative candidate, in Leadnow’s view. It expects to begin endorsing candidates nationwide in September.

Erin Keating, Leadnow’s team leader for Elmwood-Transcona, describes its call for strategic voting as an emergency measure for democracy.

“We see this as a step to a longer term sustainable solution that we see as a much better democracy,” she said.

Its end game is to eventually see a movement away from the first-past-the-post electoral system in Canada.

The was held by New Democrat Bill Blaikie from 1979 to 2008. NDP candidate Jim Maloway was able to stave off defeat in the 2008 election, before losing to Toet in 2011.

Pollster Curtis Brown of Probe Research explained that historically, it has been difficult to co-ordinate a strategic vote and noted the Liberal and NDP platforms are not interchangeable in the minds of voters.

He explained that the shifts in Elmwood-Transcona, according to this poll, don’t show the NDP gaining in the riding, but the Liberals.

“Those people who are voting Conservative are now voting Liberal, and they may not be down with supporting the NDP,” he said. “They have probably had lots of opportunities to vote NDP in the past, and didn’t… The whole vote-splitting thing doesn’t just go with the Liberals and the NDP, it goes the other way, too.”

The 13 nationwide polls that were released Thursday represent early targets for swing ridings where Leadnow has built local teams, which have gathered at least 500 signatures from people in the riding who have pledged to “vote together” against the Conservatives.

The independent advocacy group claims to not have any affiliation to a political party, stating on its website “we don’t identify as Red, Blue, Orange or Green — but we want to see change.”

Their funding comes primarily through donations from its 450,000 members, some who give a monthly donation to the group.

Unions such as the Canadian Union of Public Employees have openly criticized the movement, with CUPE national president Paul Moist calling it a “slight to the democratic process.” CUPE has endorsed the NDP and Leader Thomas Mulcair.

“We have worked with them in the past in opposition to Bill C-51, they are a good group, but we part ways with them with this so-called strategic voting,” Moist said. “No political party is advocating this in Canada. The Liberals are running very, very hard against incumbents like Pat Martin.”

kristin.annable@freepress.mb.ca