When this election ends, will another begin?

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 28/09/2015 (3675 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

If you thought federal political turmoil has been dragging on for too long without a clear outcome in sight, then you definitely won’t like the scenarios that could emerge after the Oct. 19 vote.

For starters, how about another national election next spring, around the time Manitobans are going to the polls in a provincial contest? It’s not as far-fetched as it sounds, depending on who claims the right to govern following the election.

So far, none of the three main parties has broken from the pack. That could change, but it’s still anybody’s race to win — if only by a nose.

Minority governments are inherently unstable and rarely last a full term in Canada, but the political calculations would be most intense and unpredictable if Stephen Harper’s Conservatives won a plurality of seats.

Mr. Harper says he would expect to form a government, even in a hostile Parliament.

NDP Leader Tom Mulcair and the Liberals’ Justin Trudeau are running on a platform of change. Mr. Harper’s ouster is their most important goal, and it seems inconceivable they would support a minority Conservative government.

Mr. Harper, however, could claim the right to attempt to govern. Under this scenario, Parliament would be called back six months after the election for a speech from the throne, when the Conservatives would probably be defeated.

The Governor General could then ask the leader of the next largest party if he is capable of forming a government. A temporary alliance between the Liberals and the NDP seems likely, although Mr. Trudeau has ruled out the idea of a formal coalition with cabinet positions shared by the two parties.

Mr. Harper, of course, would protest, saying the right course is another election. The people, he would argue, not power-hungry opposition parties, should decide. “Losers don’t get to form coalitions,” he said recently.

The Governor General could consider such an option, particularly if the Conservatives were only a few seats short of a majority.

Superficially, it seems as though the Liberals and the NDP would make comfortable bed partners, but historically the junior members of such alliances have tended to suffer at the next election.

And how long would the Liberal party support the NDP before it, too, was defeated and the country plunged into another election?

Canada may have to get used to the idea of formal coalitions, which work well in many countries. And if the first-past-the-post system is abandoned in favour of proportional representation — as promised by the Liberals and NDP — such a system will become commonplace.

Amid all the speculation and permutations, only one thing is clear: another election within six months or even two years is not in Canada’s best interests.

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There are too many pressing issues — the economy, the environment, national infrastructure, pipeline politics, Canada’s role in the world, the future of the Armed Forces — that require a firm, confident hand at the rudder.

Many of these challenges would be put on hold or compromised by political expediency if the fear of another election is in the forefront of every calculation.

Of course, it is impossible to say today who is obliged to do precisely what following an inconclusive election Oct. 19.

It is clear, however, the political parties ought to make the outcome work in a way that allows real management of national issues without the threat of a surprise or snap election, which might only land the country back where it started in August when the election was called.

Ultimately, the boys in big pants need to act in the best interests of the country. Here’s hoping.