PCs polling at 40% despite contentious health-care reforms

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This article was published 28/12/2017 (3036 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

A year-long slide in public support for Premier Brian Pallister’s Progressive Conservatives appears to have come to a halt.

A new Probe Research poll for the Winnipeg Free Press places support for the provincial PCs at 40 per cent among decided voters, compared with 36 per cent in September.

The Tories continue to enjoy a sizable lead against Manitoba’s two main opposition parties. The NDP is the choice of 26 per cent of Manitobans while the Liberals are supported by 25 per cent of decided voters. The Green party has eight per cent support.

Twenty-one per cent of the 1,000 Manitobans surveyed were undecided.

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The improved PC number comes at a time when the government remains under fire for its health care reforms and as it wages war with the federal government over such issues as carbon pricing, tax policy and the timing of the decriminalization of cannabis.

Scott MacKay, Probe’s president, said the uptick in support for the PCs should be put into a broader context. He noted that Tory support has dropped nine percentage points (it was 49 per cent in December 2016) over the past year.

“We can’t make too much of four points, I think,” he said Wednesday, noting that it is close to the poll’s margin of error.

However, Pallister’s Conservatives managed to close 2017 in fairly good shape, considering the magnitude of the health care reforms they’ve launched and the controversy the initiatives have spawned.

“They just stared it (controversy) in the face… and here’s where they finished off — still the most popular party, MacKay said. “They had some political capital to spend, and they spent it. And maybe the worst is behind… them.”

The latest poll shows the three main parties in a virtual dead heat in Winnipeg. The NDP has 31 per cent of the decided vote in the city, while the PCs and Liberals each have 29 per cent. NDP support fell two points (from September’s poll), while PC support inched up a couple of points.

PC support in Winnipeg varies greatly depending on age. Among those 55 and over, it’s 38 per cent, dropping to 17 per cent among those aged 18 to 34.

Across the province, the Progressive Conservatives have the support of 47 per cent of male decided voters and 34 per cent of women — tops among all parties. Only 21 per cent of decided male voters support the NDP, while 31 per cent of women do. About a quarter of men and women support the Liberals.

Christopher Adams, a political scientist at St. Paul’s College, said for the Progressive Conservatives to remain successful, Pallister will have to retain the swing female voters who once supported former NDP premier Gary Doer and former premier Greg Selinger (in his first election as party leader).

Probe was roughly two-thirds done its interviews for this poll on Dec. 7 when Pallister created a furore at a Winnipeg Chamber of Commerce luncheon by commenting about the physical appearance of the woman who chairs the business group.

Adams said Pallister may have won some sympathy from voters after a hiking mishap in New Mexico in mid-November, in which he broke his left arm. The premier discussed his misadventure in detail following his return to the legislature.

“Some Manitobans might have softened on the premier after his hiking accident,” Adams said. “The more we have a sense of warmth from the premier, I think, the better Winnipeggers like him.”

Despite electing a new leader in September, the NDP, under Wab Kinew, saw its support drop four points (from 30 per cent to 26 per cent) in the last three months.

The Liberals elected Dougald Lamont, a small-business owner and part-time university lecturer, as their leader in October. They’re up six percentage points in the polls since June — although only two points higher since September. Lamont does not hold a seat in the legislature.

“They (the Liberals) had a pretty good year, and they finish off… ahead of where they were this time last year,” said MacKay. “It seems to me that they may have the biggest chance for growth.”

larry.kusch@freepress.mb.ca