Until Scheer can learn to compromise, he’s no match for the Liberals

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 27/08/2018 (2753 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

This past week in Halifax, the Conservative Party of Canada and its amiable leader Andrew Scheer gathered for its annual policy convention. When it was over, most agreed it was a raucous, thrill-ride of a gathering. Perhaps too much so.

Party members debated and voted on many controversial resolutions. This included a decision to adopt a policy to end so-called “maternity tourism,” a practice whereby foreign nationals come to Canada with the expressed purpose of giving birth and gaining immediate Canadian citizenship for their babies.

Tories also narrowly defeated a motion that would have theoretically allowed a future Conservative government to introduce anti-abortion legislation, while supporting a motion that mirrored one of U.S. President Donald Trump’s executive orders, which was to officially recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel.

That’s all pretty prickly stuff and despite vigorous debate, it seemed there were more unhappy than happy campers at the end of the convention.

When party officials confirmed they would not allow a debate on a motion to end supply management for agricultural commodities, The Canadian Press reported that some of the rank and file demonstrated their disgust by tearing up their membership cards.

Ah, but maternity tourism, abortion, Jerusalem and supply management were only the undercard fights at the Tory convention. The main bout involved MP Maxime Bernier going up against the entire Conservative Party establishment.

After a week in which he posted controversial comments about the evil of diversity and multiculturalism, and suggested that immigration was already too high for Canada’s own good, Bernier capped it all off with a resignation from the Conservatives and a threat to form his own party.

The Bernier departure, and the general tone of the policy debate in Halifax, leave the Conservatives in a rather tenuous position. Now, more than ever before, the Tories look like a party that is not entirely sure what it stands for. The timing for this crisis of identity could not have come at a worse time.

With just over a year to go before a federal election must be called, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government finds itself very nearly tied in popular support with Scheer’s Conservatives.

With an election a year away, it would be a great time for any party with designs to de-throne the Trudeau government to fashion a concise, impactful brand that could not only retain the support of diehard members but expand the base of support.

That’s not exactly what the Tories are doing.

Efforts to shake off the stench of its 2015 campaign — which saw former prime minister Stephen Harper desperately embrace the demon that is identity politics — and adopt more moderate positions now seem in peril. And while many Tories will dismiss Bernier as an offensive fool, he has something that his now former party does not: a clearly defined brand with potential to grow.

Abacus Data released new poll results on August 26 that included “the Bernier Party” as a possible option for decided voters. The theoretical impact is fascinating.

Prior to Bernier’s resignation, Abacus had voter intentions pegged at 38 per cent for the Liberals, 34 per cent for the Conservatives and 18 per cent for the NDP. When Abacus added Bernier to the mix, all parties lost a bit of support, but the Liberals were able to extend their lead by losing fewer voters.

In a poll that included the still-theoretical Bernier Party, the Liberals received the support of 34 per cent of respondents, the Tories got 28 per cent, the NDP 16 per cent and Bernier brought up the rear with a remakable 13 per cent support.

There are big “ifs” built into the Abacus data. But given that he would steal more support from the Conservatives than any other party, Bernier is poised to fill the role of spoiler for Scheer’s ambitions next fall.

Scheer’s rough ride in Halifax, and long, hard winter of fencing he can look forward to with Bernier, confirm a long-standing precept of electoral politics: before you can lead a country, you need to learn how to lead your own party.

As Scheer is demonstrating, that’s much easier said than done.

Thanks to Bernier and a host of other factors, Scheer now finds himself desperately searching for stable ground from which he can build a campaign that will take his party into next year’s federal election.

On the one side, Scheer faces the expectations of moderates within the Tory ranks who realize a centrist pitch with a tinge of fiscal conservatism allows the Conservative Party to compete evenly with the governing Liberals.

On the other, he faces party members who, like Bernier, are determined to embrace policies that lean more to the extreme end of the political spectrum.

That will play directly into Trudeau’s intention to revive his 2015 campaign strategy and paint the Tories as dangerous social conservatives.

As an example, let’s look at the issue of Canada’s supply management system. Notwithstanding the reaction by card-tearing party members, the decision to put off debate on a resolution to end supply management only acknowleges the fact that it is not a perch from which to fight an election.

Nanos Research reported earlier this month that 80 per cent of Canadians either strongly or somewhat support politicians that want to protect supply management.

The rogue Tory elements can rage all they want about Scheer’s decision to leave this issue off the policy agenda in Halifax, but he is only responding to a political reality.

The history of conservative politics in this country has always featured a desperate, internal fight between moderate and more extreme elements. Tory leaders who have been able to harness the extreme elements, like Diefenbaker and Mulroney, enjoyed historic levels of voter support.

Those who could not either left to form their own parties or descended into infighting, thereby creating an easy path for the Liberals to form government.

Scheer’s greatest failure in Halifax was that he has not clearly demonstrated that do what good leaders must always do: forge a compromise that will get moderates and extremists on the same page. Until he can do that, he will be no match for the Liberals.

dan.lett@freepress.mb.ca