Changing of the old guard

Opinion

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This article was published 24/08/2009 (5868 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

You’re the premier of Manitoba, you’ve won three majorities and maintained a stranglehold on power for 10 years. What do you do now?

If you’re Gary Doer, you shake up your cabinet in a major way.

Cabinet shuffles are almost always underwhelming stories. Truly surprising appointments or departures are rare, especially for governments that are under no immediate threat.

However, there are signs that Doer’s next shuffle, expected to come in early October, could be more interesting than first expected.

In a recent interview, Doer confirmed this shuffle will be used to allow some veterans who aren’t going to run in the next election to step aside to usher in a new generation of ministers who will lead the team that will wage battle in the next provincial election.

Doer said there are a few members of the NDP caucus, including some ministers, who have let it be known they will not run in the next election. Others, Doer said, haven’t told him directly but have told some of their constituents. For those who have decided that a decade in government is enough, there will be an expectation they will step aside for younger MLAs.

Doer said the timing is perfect for a major shuffle. After a decade in power, and halfway through the current mandate, it’s always a good time to fine-tune the most visible members of the government to ensure the best chance for re-election, he added.

"The bottom line is that some of us have been in cabinet for 10 years and some of us won’t be running in the next election. To use a football term, we’ll be making our halftime adjustments," he said. "I would say this is going to be a very important cabinet shuffle."

Doer recalled the course taken by former minister Tim Sale, who announced his retirement in 2006, well in advance of the spring 2007 provincial election. Sale stepped down from his health portfolio to allow Theresa Oswald, a rising star in Doer’s caucus, to step into a front-bench portfolio. It also allowed Doer to promote Kerri Irvin-Ross, who holds the strategically important Fort Garry seat, to take on the junior healthy-living post.

Of course, not all of the incoming ministers will be defined by youth. Doer is expected to offer a cabinet seat to former MP Bill Blaikie, the newest member of the NDP caucus.

Blaikie retired last year from a lengthy career in the House of Commons. However, his retirement didn’t last long; Blaikie was lured back into politics by Doer, and easily won a spring byelection in Elmwood-Transcona.

Doer has not explicitly confirmed he has offered Blaikie a seat at the cabinet table. However, a politician of Blaikie’s stature and experience seems like a slam dunk. The question then becomes, how many veteran ministers are on the way out to make room for Blaikie and a couple of younger guns?

Given Doer’s tendency to keep his cards close to his vest, it has been very difficult to tell which veteran ministers may be ready to hang them up.

There has been speculation that Culture, Heritage and Tourism Minister Eric Robinson, who has battled health problems, might be ready to retire.

Justice Minister Dave Chomiak has had a difficult couple of years, both in the legislature and outside it, and may be ready for a change.

Speculation also swirls around Finance Minister Greg Selinger. Unfortunately for political gossip mongers, there are just as many people who think Selinger will leave as there are those who believe he will step up to bid for Doer’s job when he retires.

On paper, Selinger is a logical choice to replace Doer, but has done little to suggest he has a burning desire to assume Doer’s job.

It could be that Selinger isn’t prepared to wait for Doer to make up his mind about whether to seek a fourth mandate. Doer hasn’t tipped his hand yet, leading to all manner of conspiracy theories about if and when he will retire. (One persistent rumour among the well-heeled Lake Winnipeg martini crowd has Doer becoming Canada’s next ambassador to the United States. It’s a stretch, but with Doer, you just never know.)

When pressed about his intentions, Doer quite often tells a story about an exchange he had as opposition leader with then Tory deputy premier Jim Downey.

Doer said his opposition MLAs had been hammering the Tories all day on some pressing issue. Despite this, Downey had a huge grin on his face.

When Doer asked him what he was smiling about, Downey said, "The worst day in government is better than the best day in opposition."

That is even more true for cabinet ministers, as some NDP MLAs will find out about six weeks from now.

dan.lett@freepress.mb.ca

Premier Gary Doer’s cabinet members: When they were first elected and which posts they’ve held:

 

Rosann Wowchuk

First elected: 1993, minister of agriculture since 1999.

Years in cabinet: 10

 

Greg

Selinger

First elected: 1999, minister of finance since 1999.

Years in

cabinet: 10

 

Steve

Ashton

First elected: 1981, minister of highways and government services (1999), minister of conservation (2002), minister of water stewardship (2003), minister of intergovernmental affairs and minister responsible for emergency measures (2006).

Years in cabinet: 10

 

Dave

Chomiak

First elected: 1990, minister of health (1999), minister of energy, science and technology (2004), minister of justice and attorney general 2006).

Years in cabinet: 10

 

Gord

Mackintosh

First elected: 1993, minister of justice and attorney general (1999), minister of family services and housing and minister responsible for persons with disabilities 2006).

Years in cabinet: 10

 

Eric

Robinson

First elected: 1993, minister of aboriginal and northern affairs (1999), minister of culture, heritage and tourism and the minister responsible for sport and recreation (2006).

Years in cabinet: 10

 

Diane

McGifford

First elected: 1995, minister of culture, heritage, and tourism; minister responsible for status of women; minister responsible for seniors; and minister charged with the administration of the Manitoba Liquor Control Commission and the Manitoba Lotteries Corporation Act (1999). Minister of advanced education (2002).

Years in cabinet: 10

 

Ron

Lemieux

First elected: 1999, minister of consumer of corporate affairs (1999-2000), minister of culture, heritage and tourism with responsibility for sport (2001), minister of education and youth (2002), minister of Infrastructure and transportation (2003), minister of infrastructure and transportation (2006).

Years in cabinet: 10

 

Jim

Rondeau

First elected: 1999, minister of healthy living (2003), minister of industry, economic development and mines (2004), minister of science, technology, energy and mines (2006).

Years in cabinet: 6

 

Stan Struthers

First elected: 1995, minister of conservation (2003)

Years in

cabinet: 6

 

Nancy

Allan

First elected: 1999, minister of labour and immigration; minister responsible for multiculturalism; minister responsible for the Workers Compensation Board and the status of women (2003)

Years in cabinet: 6

 

Peter Bjornson

First elected: 2003, minister of education, citizenship and youth (2003)

Years in

cabinet: 6

 

Theresa Oswald

First elected: 2003, minister of healthy living (2004), minister of health (2006).

Years in

cabinet: 5

 

 

Kerri Irvin-Ross

First elected: 2003, minister of healthy living (2006)

Years in

cabinet: 3

 

Christine Melnick

First elected: 2003, minister of family services and housing, responsible for persons with disabilities (2003), minister of water stewardship (2006).

Years in cabinet: 6

 

Andrew Swan

Elected: 2004, minister of competitiveness, training and trade (2008).

Years in

cabinet: 1

— Source: Manitoba NDP