Trudeau must not give in to temptation

Opinion

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 25/10/2019 (2145 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

The worst thing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau can do after winning a minority government Monday is to govern as if he has a majority.

It’s a temptation Trudeau will likely face, since none of the opposition parties that hold the balance of power in the House of Commons, particularly the NDP, will want to defeat the government and trigger an election in the near future.

The math: the Liberals (157 seats) only need the support of the NDP (24 seats) to make Parliament work.

The government needs 170 votes to get budgets, throne speeches and legislation through the House. Which means it doesn’t need the Conservatives (121) or Bloc Québécois (32) to advance its legislative agenda. It certainly doesn’t need the Greens (three seats) or the lone Independent (Jody Wilson-Raybould).

Since the NDP, like most parties with depleted bank accounts, has no desire to return to the polls for at least 18 to 24 months (maybe longer), the Liberals could govern almost as if they have a majority. If the NDP isn’t willing to defeat them on a confidence vote, what’s stopping Trudeau from carrying on as he did before the election?

Even if the NDP were prepared to vote against the government on a confidence vote, if it were deemed “good for Quebec,” the Liberals might be able to rely on the Bloc from time to time to maintain the confidence of the House.

If the Liberals were defeated on a confidence motion soon after an election, Gov. Gen. Julie Payette would consider asking another party to form government before agreeing to call an election, at least according to convention.

That’s what happened in British Columbia in 2017, after the Liberal minority lost the confidence of the house soon after an election. The lieutenant-governor invited the NDP to form government, with the support of the Greens. That government is still in office today.

A similar situation unfolded in New Brunswick last year, but it would be difficult to make it work in Ottawa right now.

The Conservatives, if invited to form government, would need the support of the NDP and Bloc on every confidence vote to stay in office, which is highly improbable. Since the NDP likely wants to avoid an election, it would need a compelling reason to defeat the government over the next two years.

That leaves the Liberals in a pretty good spot.

Trudeau also has an opportunity to recapture a majority, if he plays his cards right.

If he resists the urge to govern unilaterally and decides to reach out to other parties (including the Tories), he could rebuild the Liberals’ battered brand, especially in the West. If the prime minister also collaborated with western premiers on issues of importance to them, he could end up north of 170 seats again. (Those odds would improve if Andrew Scheer, who’s proven to be a liability to the Conservatives, stays on as leader.)

If Trudeau governs as if he has a majority and largely ignores the wishes of opposition parties and the interests of Western Canada, he’d be hard-pressed to overcome the time-for-a-change dynamic that would surely grow.

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A fractious Parliament plagued by infighting and led by an arrogant prime minister who spews hyper-partisan platitudes could spell the end of Trudeau’s political career by the time Canadians go to the polls again.

However, if he takes the high road and mends fences, there may be a pot of gold for him at the end of the rainbow.

Trudeau is saying all the right things at the moment to promote a more collegial Parliament. Whether he acts on those words, sustains that approach and finds a way to address the alienation felt by many in the west, remains to be seen.

If he knows what’s good for his political career, and for national unity, he’ll choose collaboration over autocracy.

tom.brodbeck@freepress.mb.ca

Tom Brodbeck
Columnist

Tom Brodbeck is an award-winning author and columnist with over 30 years experience in print media. He joined the Free Press in 2019. Born and raised in Montreal, Tom graduated from the University of Manitoba in 1993 with a Bachelor of Arts degree in economics and commerce. Read more about Tom.

Tom provides commentary and analysis on political and related issues at the municipal, provincial and federal level. His columns are built on research and coverage of local events. The Free Press’s editing team reviews Tom’s columns before they are posted online or published in print – part of the Free Press’s tradition, since 1872, of producing reliable independent journalism. Read more about Free Press’s history and mandate, and learn how our newsroom operates.