Pandemic restrictions making impact, effort must be maintained: Roussin

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This article was published 25/11/2020 (1944 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Despite ongoing, daily triple-digit increases in novel coronavirus infections that continue to lead the country per capita, Manitoba seems to have tempered the skyward trajectory of its epidemic.

Chief provincial public health officer Dr. Brent Roussin said epidemiological models used to guide the government’s response projected, by this week, Manitoba could have been reporting up to 800 cases a day, had critical level restrictions not been put into place.

“So even though our levels of restrictions haven’t brought down the numbers to where we feel we could sustain, it’s very likely that we’re seeing some benefit from these restrictions. But we can’t let up, we still have to get these numbers down,” Roussin said at a media briefing Wednesday.

“We haven’t seen the climb that we expected, largely based on the restrictions and Manitobans’ adherence to a lot of the advice that we have — but we certainly need to get those numbers down quite quickly.”

Roussin reported 349 new infections (213 from the Winnipeg region), the deaths of nine Manitobans, and a five-day test positivity rate of 14 per cent both provincewide and within the Winnipeg region.

A record 303 people were hospitalized with the disease Wednesday (including 50 in intensive care), and 256 Manitobans have died from COVID-19.

Earlier this week, Roussin said in the lead-up to introducing critical level restrictions across the province Nov. 12, the COVID-19 caseload was doubling every two weeks.

At that time, the trajectory of the province’s pandemic curve lined up with a model illustrating the “worst case” scenario for Manitoba, one in which health system capacity would be reached by mid-December.

“As we went into red (critical level restrictions), we’re actually sort of at that worst case, where we had the numbers climbing in a sense that we had no public health restrictions and no compliance to our messaging,” Roussin said.

On Tuesday, nearly two weeks into critical level restrictions, he said updated modelling suggests caseload growth has slowed — now doubling over a three-week period. The number of contacts per case is also trending downward.

On Wednesday, when asked to provide the number of cases the province is projected to report in two weeks — when public health officials may consider rolling back some pandemic measures — a spokesperson for the government said such a figure was not available.

However, the province said it is planning to present updated pandemic modelling that takes into account enhanced restrictions in the near future.

While Manitoba may have dodged an even worse crisis, Roussin said the case numbers and deaths he reports on a daily basis can’t become the norm.

“We’ve had our restrictions in place for some time now, we’re still seeing our numbers at a level that we can’t continue to sustain,” Roussin said.

“Our health-care system is being pushed to capacity. Our health-care providers on those front lines are overwhelmed.”

Shared Health chief nursing officer Lanette Siragusa said the province’s hospital system continues to add capacity to deal with the surge in COVID-19 patients and reorganize staff to care for people who need medical attention.

As of Wednesday, the province’s critical care units were 146 per cent over pre-pandemic capacity, with 105 patients admitted into ICU, Siragusa said.

At Winnipeg’s Health Sciences Centre, an eight-bed observation unit has been opened in the emergency department to place patients awaiting the result of a COVID-19 test prior to admittance to hospital.

“We will continue to implement our plans that we have created. We have to adapt them as we go,” Siragusa said. “We are in uncharted territory now, and our goal is to stay one step ahead of this virus and ensure that patient care is not compromised.”

Siragusa said more isolation units are coming for people experiencing homelessness in Winnipeg: a 140-bed facility will be opened by the end of the week to support families and individuals who can’t effectively isolate from others.

Meanwhile, Roussin reminded the public to be respectful of public health nurses and other health-care providers performing contact tracing and monitoring.

Manitoba’s top doctor said he continues to receive reports of abuse directed toward officials calling people who need to go into self-isolation after being named as a close contact or testing positive for the virus.

“They’re more angry when we delve into what self-isolation means,” Roussin said. “So if we want to be able to get these restrictions lifted, we have to have very active case finding and isolation, and contact finding and isolation.

“Without that, it’s going to be very difficult to lift the restrictions.”

Roussin said he’s also heard reports of Manitobans heading to places such as Yorkton, Sask., and Kenora, Ont., to shop for non-essential items. He strongly advised against taking such shopping trips at this time.

“Right now, we need to stay home as much as possible,” Roussin said.

“This is going to be hopefully a short period of these level of restrictions but we have to take them seriously, otherwise we’re putting Manitobans’ lives at risk.”

danielle.dasilva@freepress.mb.ca