Manitoba mortality rate exceeds estimate: StatCan

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This article was published 09/02/2021 (1731 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

OTTAWA — The pandemic could be indirectly killing as many Manitobans as those listed among the official COVID-19 death toll, Statistics Canada data suggest.

The agency says about 163 more Manitobans died in the first seven months of the pandemic, beyond the mortality estimated if the pandemic had not occurred.

It will take months to sort out what caused the added mortality. While these deaths are tragic, the Manitoba numbers don’t stand out as much as the rise in Western Canada deaths, which appear driven by the opioid crisis.

Statistics Canada tracks vital statistics, and modelled how many deaths provinces could expect based on demographics and overall population health in recent years.

In a dataset updated Monday, the agency tabulated Manitoba deaths from January to October 2020. In that period, Manitoba reported 9,473 deaths, though only 9,310 had been projected.

That means an extra 163 deaths.

According to provincial data, 75 Manitobans had died with COVID-19, as of Oct. 31, 2020 — meaning half the excess deaths were not directly related to reported COVID-19 infections.

The province reports causes of death, but it takes months to collate that data and send it to Statistics Canada, and so one-fifth of Manitoba deaths in that time period are not yet categorized.

That makes it impossible to tell whether there was a rise in deaths from suicide, postponed medical procedures, a side-effect of increased substance use, or from injuries incurred as people took up outdoor hobbies.

COVID-19 could also be preventing some deaths, particularly from influenza, though the data reported Monday precede flu season.

Dr. Tara Moriarty, an infectious-diseases expert, noted not everyone who has COVID-19 gets tested, and that there have been lags in reporting coronavirus deaths in personal care homes.

“It could be that COVID-19 deaths were under-detected or under-reported,” the University of Toronto professor wrote in an email.

“Certainly, the very high (coronavirus) case fatality rate and sustained high positivity rate suggest that there were likely many cases missed, and likely some deaths, too.”

Dr. Tyler Black, a psychiatrist at the B.C. Children’s Hospital who specializes in suicide, noted four provinces with updated data all show a decline in suicide, despite an uptick in calls to support lines.

“It looks like, overall, Canada saw a slight decrease, and I think it speaks to how everybody kind of came together and supported each other,” noting the messaging around mental health and the economic supports.

“Crisis call centres are there to support people. So if people are calling more and dying less, that’s actually probably a really good thing,” he said in an interview.

“The story changes significantly if it’s heart attacks, and people who didn’t go to the hospital because they were scared… or something totally unrelated, that might not have anything to do with the pandemic.”

In any case, Manitoba’s reported data ends on Halloween, just as Winnipeg prepared to go into code red ahead of a brutal wave of infections.

The number of Manitobans who have died from COVID-19 has multiplied tenfold since the reporting period.

Moriarty noted, starting in November, Manitoba led the country in hospitalization for a sustained amount of time.

“It is also possible that at least some of the excess death in Manitoba has been due to reduced access to hospital beds, emergency and ICU care among Manitobans who did not have (the virus), or avoidance of hospitals and medical care by Manitobans fearful of contracting COVID-19.”

Nationally, there were an estimated 259,836 deaths between January and November 2020, representing an excess 12,067 deaths.

“The impact of the pandemic on mortality in Canada has evolved since the spring, affecting a broader array of populations, including younger age groups and those living in the western provinces,” reads a Monday analysis from Statistics Canada.

Alberta and British Columbia logged a substantial increase in deaths among males under the age of 45, and officials in both provinces have linked this to increased opioid overdoses.

dylan.robertson@freepress.mb.ca