Vaccine uptake raising employment outlook

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This article was published 12/06/2021 (1822 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Even as COVID-19 vaccine uptake increases and governments across Canada announce reopening plans to bring back local economies, Winnipeg-area employers expect a limited hiring climate for the third quarter of 2021.

But analysts say it’s a significant improvement when comparing year-over-year levels, indicating the start of a return to pre-pandemic employment outlooks — or otherwise, simply, great news for job seekers.

Only nine per cent of Winnipeg employers plan to hire in the coming three months and seven per cent anticipate cutbacks, according to the latest ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey, widely viewed as the most extensive global research on recruitment and staffing.

The remaining 84 per cent of local companies plan to maintain their current staffing levels in July, August and September.

Nationally, employers report an increase of eight per cent in outlooks for the third quarter — an 18-percentage point increase from this time last year, but unchanged from April, May and June in 2021.

Darlene Minatel, Canada’s manager for ManpowerGroup (an American Fortune 500 multinational corporation), said that shows significant improvement and puts the country “exactly on par with pre-pandemic outlooks.”

“Looking back to the third quarter of 2020 — the weakest quarter for employment outlook since the survey began in 1978 — the employment outlook has increased significantly in just one year,” she said.

Minatel believes these relative gains are the result of “widespread vaccination and settling of the pandemic,” as many employers plan to return to their buildings and offices for work in the coming months.

However, while all 10 major industries in Canada expect to add to payrolls in the next quarter, hiring plans are uneven across those sectors. And results also vary regionally.

The public administration sector, with an increase of 18 per cent to its outlook, plans to hire the most. That’s followed by manufacturing of durables (at 15 per cent), manufacturing of non-durables (at 13 per cent), transportation and public utilities (12 per cent), finance, insurance and real estate (10 per cent), and Mining (10 per cent).

At the lowest end of the spectrum is the construction sector, with an increase of three per cent since the last quarter. It’s just behind wholesale and retail trade (at four per cent), education (five per cent), and services (seven per cent).

Quebec has the strongest regional outlook in the country (at 19 per cent), followed by the Atlantic Canadian provinces (at 11 per cent). But in provinces like Ontario and Manitoba, those numbers dip down (at seven and six per cent, respectively).

“We’re definitely not out of the woods yet,” said Richard Plumb, vice-president of the Western Canada region for ManpowerGroup, in an interview. “The third quarter is certainly the time when most companies would be doing their major hirings in a regular year.”

Plumb believes the limited hiring sentiment can be attributed to worries of a potential fourth wave for the pandemic, or if vaccine uptake levels simmer down to prolong herd immunity, thus affecting the possibility of coming back to the office. He cited survey data which shows 26 per cent employers don’t expect to go back to pre-pandemic levels of hiring at all.

“But of course, you’re seeing a lot of industries faring well,” said Plumb, referring to the outlook for the public administration sector, which he believes is because it adapted quickly to working from home.

Around 70 per cent of employers said most of their workforce have roles which require them to be based in the workplace. When asked where they expect the majority of their workforce to be in the next six to 12 months, 79 per cent said they’d like employees to be at the office all of the time, although many are planning to introduce flexible work options and generally have a favourable view of remote work.

“I definitely anticipate, when we release our fourth quarter results in September, things are going to look even better than they’re already starting to for job seekers,” said Plumb. “It’s all looking hopeful.”

temur.durrani@freepress.mb.ca

Twitter: @temurdur