Things are getting real

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This article was published 01/10/2021 (1785 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

It’s about to get real

Next Thursday at Mexico’s Estadio Azteca, Canada’s men’s national soccer team will kick off it’s most difficult stretch of 2022 World Cup qualifying. By mid-month they’ll also have faced Jamaica in Kingston and hosted Panama in Toronto. (Sportsnet has television broadcast rights for all three games.)

Mexico’s international pedigree — they’ve missed only five World Cups, one because they were banned — needs no introduction. And despite recent losses to the United States they’re still the region’s sole soccer heavyweight. Panama, meanwhile, qualified for the 2018 event in Russia and Jamaica contested back-to-back Gold Cup finals in 2015 and 2017.

In other words, the standings might not look all that good from a Canadian perspective in 11 days’ time, and given the well-earned angst of fans in this country it’s understandable many might succumb to premature disappointment. 

But it’s not the time to panic. Not at all. And for two reasons.

First, the early portion of CONCACAF’s third and final round of World Cup qualifying was always going the most difficult for manager John Herdman & Co.

In September’s matches they had to open the schedule against Honduras — their most difficult qualifier since the infamous 8-1 drubbing in San Pedro Sula nine years earlier — and then travel to CONCACAF Nations League and Gold Cup champions United States before returning to BMO Field and a must-win encounter with El Salvador.

The five points they took placed them second in the standings — even three would have been a competitive return — and set them up nicely for these next three games, two of which will be played away to a pair of legitimate qualification contenders.

So, even if Canada were to lose at the Azteca and Independence Park, they’d still be in reasonably good shape — provided, of course, that they beat Panama at home

This is because it’s all about to be rather less uphill from here.

With trips to the U.S., Mexico and Jamaica out of the way, the only really intimidating journey will be to San Pedro Sula in January. In February and March, when the campaign comes to a close, they’ll finish against El Salvador, Costa Rica, Jamaica and Panama — as downhill a schedule as it gets in the region.

If they’re even fourth or fifth in the table at the outset of that stretch, they’re probably headed to Qatar.

The second reason to stay the course is because this team is good enough to maintain a top-three position even after this month’s matches.

In the 2021 Gold Cup, don’t forget, Canada took Mexico to added time before Hector Herrera’s semi-final winner, and that was without Alphonso Davies, Jonathan David, Cyle Larin, Atiba Hutchinson and Milan Borjan.

In fact, they actually outplayed El Tri for long spells during the second half and would have earned at least two periods of extra time had it not been for the homophobic chanting of Mexico fans that stopped the match and added the nine minutes Herrera needed for his goal.

It was grossly unfair — a CONCACAF specialty — and in another ridiculous decision that will benefit Mexico, the Azteca will admit fans for the Canada showdown after a two-match stadium ban imposed for previous homophobic chanting was reduced to one.

Getting anything out of Thursday’s match will be extremely difficult, but once it’s out of the way Canada’s talent could well be enough to take at least a point from Jamaica and then all three from Panama.

What the Gold Cup and early World Cup qualifiers revealed was that Stephen Eustaquio is one of the best midfielders on the continent, that Alistair Johnston can defend almost anything on the right-hand side and that Tajon Buchanan is the second-most dangerous dribbler in CONCACAF — after Davies.

Ah, yes. Davies.

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His bizarre Instagram post after returning to Munich following a slight injury in the U.S. game, in which he declared “They won’t realize how big of a part you play, until you’re not there to play it anymore,” caused considerable and understandable consternation among Canada fans.

But the concern was rooted in what’s at stake in these qualifiers as much as in his individual mindset.

And what’s at stake is a genuine chance to compete in a World Cup for the first time since 1986.

If it’s about to get real, it’s because it’s rarely been so realistic.

jerradpeters@gmail.com Twitter @JerradPeters