Canada can make it to Qatar for the World Cup even with a loss tonight. Here’s how

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 23/03/2022 (1618 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

The Canadian men’s national team begins its final set of World Cup qualification matches tonight, and it might only need one game to clinch a berth in Qatar later this year.

Canada goes into the remaining three matches of the 14-game final round of qualifying in the CONCACAF region sitting at the top of the eight-team standings. John Herdman’s side is unbeaten through 11 games, with seven wins and four ties.

Behind the Canadians are the United States in second and Mexico in third. Both countries have 21 points a piece. Panama has 17 points in fourth, with Costa Rica in fifth (16).

With the standings as they are, Canada can clinch its first World Cup berth since 1986 tonight (10 p.m. ET, Sportsnet One), the first night of competition in the final qualification window. Canada plays Costa Rica at Estadio Nacional de Costa Rica in San Jose.

Win the match, extend the team’s streak of victories to seven games, and the equation is simple: Canada is in.

If Canada doesn’t win, the team can still qualify:

• If Canada ties Costa Rica, it would need Panama to tie or lose to Honduras at home, or the United States to tie or lose to Mexico on the road, to clinch.

• If Canada lost to Costa Rica, it would need Panama to tie or lose to Honduras at home and the United States to lose to Mexico on the road to clinch.

The Costa Ricans are riding a four-game unbeaten streak that goes back to last November, having taken seven of a possible nine points in a January window that saw wins over Panama on the road and Jamaica at home bookend a 0-0 tie with Mexico at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City. Costa Rica has lost just one game at home through qualification, dropping a 1-0 result to Mexico last September. In total, Canada’s next opponent has just three losses through qualifiers.

Canada handed Costa Rica its most recent defeat, last November in Edmonton. The home side won 1-0 thanks to a 57th minute goal by Jonathan David. But the Costa Ricans were without a key member of their squad, star goalkeeper Keylor Navas.

Navas, who has given up just five goals in 10 appearances in qualifying, was injured. A veteran team that relies on its defence and goalkeeping to grind out results, Costa Rica should be a tougher test for Canada this time around.

Winnipeg Free Press | Newsletter

The Warm-Up

Winnipeg Jets Game Days

On Winnipeg Jets game days, hockey writers Mike McIntyre and Ken Wiebe send news, notes and quotes from the morning skate, as well as injury updates and lineup decisions. Arrives a few hours prior to puck drop.

Sign up for The Warm-Up

Sign Up

I consent to the Terms and Conditions, Cookie and Privacy Policies.

I consent to CASL agreement.

The Canadians will be boosted by their 11-game unbeaten streak through qualification, in particular two difficult road wins against Honduras and El Salvador that the team had to grind out in its last window.

If Canada doesn’t get the victory to clinch a World Cup berth outright, there is some hope that the other results could go the team’s way. The match between the United States and Mexico will be the one Canada is watching most closely, as the Americans have won just one game on the road (against Honduras) in qualification, while Mexico has yet to lose at home.

And there are always Canada’s final two matches — hosting Jamaica on Sunday at BMO Field and visiting Panama on March 30 in the qualification finale — where the team can seal the deal.

It’s all in the Canadians’ hands now.

Laura Armstrong is a Star sports reporter based in Toronto. Follow her on Twitter: @lauraarmy