COVID-19 infections to rise, wastewater shows
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Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 29/04/2022 (1423 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.
The number of COVID-19 cases in Winnipeg is about to jump.
Wastewater modelling predicts there will be 3,000 new daily cases by mid-May.
“The modelling forecast, based on both clinical and wastewater data, suggests an increasing trend in the number of cases for the next few weeks,” reads the latest report from the Public Health Agency of Canada and Statistics Canada.
The federal agencies have been using a modelling formula that considers how much of the coronavirus has been detected in sewage systems in most Canadian cities, along with trends in the small number of PCR tests that are being conducted.
Using testing data up until April 13, and sewage samples up to April 11, the modelling forecasts a rise in cases that would put Winnipeg trends on par with case numbers experienced in mid-January, which is lower than the Christmas peak caused by the Omicron variant, but higher than any earlier point in the pandemic.
Wastewater samples from three spots across the city suggest a slight recent uptick in cases.
In the city’s west and south, coronavirus particles seemed to have temporarily dipped since the start of the month before rebounding, according to several-day trends using samples up to April 21.
In the northern part of the city, cases seem to have shot up since mid-March. There was a sharp increase at the start of April, and then a more gradual rise.
Epidemiologists say wastewater testing is useful for tracking COVID-19 spread in a community, but is not as precise as widespread laboratory testing. Manitoba and other provinces drastically scaled back testing during the Omicron wave because infection rates were widespread.
Humans often excrete the coronavirus before they have symptoms, meaning a rise in viral particles can help detect an increase in cases before they affect hospitalization rates.
However, wastewater sampling can be influenced by multiple factors, such as more snowmelt diluting the viral loads in city sewers.
fpcity@freepress.mb.ca