Further alienating angry public service likely not a winning strategy for Tories

Opinion

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 25/08/2023 (776 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

There are some things a governing party hell-bent on re-election should never do in the immediate prelude to a vote.

Never raise taxes in your last budget before an election. Never allow your leader to become embroiled in a scandal. Never make deep cuts to public services.

And never, ever, deliberately pick a fight with thousands of public servants.

Despite their precarious position in pre-election polls — tied or leading slightly provincewide, trailing badly in Winnipeg — the Progressive Conservatives continue to play chicken with public-sector unions.

After more than two weeks on the picket lines, more than 1,400 Manitoba Liquor and Lotteries employees are voting on whether to accept a renewed offer from the Crown corporation. At the same time, 1,700 employees of Manitoba Public Insurance are poised to go on strike Monday.

But that’s not all. The Manitoba Government and General Employees’ Union is currently in bargaining for more than 11,000 provincial civil servants, the employees who work directly for government proper and not for Crown agencies. The latest update from the union indicated that government’s latest wage offer is unacceptable, setting the stage for yet another conflict.

There seems little chance that the civil service bargaining group could hit the picket line before the election campaign officially begins early next month. But the combination of service interruptions at Manitoba Liquor Marts and potentially in the Autopac network, raises a worrisome prospect for the government.

Could aggrieved public servants rise up and smite the Tories on Oct. 3?

Could aggrieved public servants – those on strike, about to strike or angry about wage restraint and bad-faith bargaining over the past six years – rise up and smite the Tories on Oct. 3?

It’s impossible to draw a direct cause and effect between the Tory record of neglect and abuse with public-sector unions and voter tendencies. Most public-sector unions are huge and their membership includes people who identify across the political spectrum.

Some unions and their members are clearly looking forward to a bit of ballot-box revenge. The Manitoba Nurses Union and the Manitoba Teachers’ Society, bargaining groups that are thought to have great sway with their memberships, are both actively lobbying against another four years of Tory government.

The political proclivities of public servants in other unions, however, will be harder to predict.

It’s pretty easy to assume that among the 11,000 members of the MGEU civil service bargaining group, there are a variety of political sensibilities. Some MGEU members will remain faithful to the PCs despite all the negative experiences of the last seven years.

The more salient debate here is why would the Tories want to risk any kind of karmic payback from public servants on election day? The prevailing theory is that sparring with public-sector unions will actually help more than hurt.

Bashing or abusing public-servants and their unions is a tried and true conservative dog whistle that tends to stir the base and trigger a wave of donations.

Bashing or abusing public-servants and their unions is a tried and true conservative dog whistle that tends to stir the base and trigger a wave of donations.

And we should remember that in this election, the Tories are clearly moving further right in their campaign pledges to ensure they don’t lose votes to the far-right Keystone and Manitoba parties. Showing contempt for public servants would definitely play well among those voters.

And yet, it’s hard to imagine that Premier Heather Stefanson and her MLAs will be re-elected on the strength of those voters.

Public-sector strikes create double trouble for the government of the day.

First, you are provoking the affected employees and putting them in a bad mood as they approach their moment at the ballot box. But second, in most cases, you are also putting members of the general public in an equally bad mood when important public services are disrupted.

The MLL strike not only put workers on picket lines, it closed Liquor Marts across the province, causing upset and inconvenience among its customers. It also made it extremely difficult for the owners of private wine stores, beer vendors, bars and restaurants to get the alcohol they need to make their living.

Similar concerns surround the pending MPI strike. Not only will it become more difficult and inconvenient to make an Autopac claim, but it will add to a existing backlog in the repair industry, which is already five months behind schedule. Everyone from private insurance brokers to individual policy holders and businesses in the auto repair industry are holding their collective breath.

It is not certain that great swaths of Manitoba voters will hold the Stefanson government accountable for these disruptions. Every strike carries a certain degree of public relations peril for both employer and union.

But the danger for the Tories from these disputes is clear and present. By the time the campaign gets officially underway when the writ drops, thousands of provincial public servants will have reason to be angry with this government.

The only question left for the Tories is how those people express it.

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Will they continue to vote PC and ignore the last seven years?

Will those with Tory loyalties choose not to vote rather than betray their party?

Or will they take all that saved-up dissatisfaction and deposit it at the ballot box?

Right now, it appears the latter two constituencies will outnumber the former.

dan.lett@winnipegfreepress.com

Dan Lett
Columnist

Dan Lett is a columnist for the Free Press, providing opinion and commentary on politics in Winnipeg and beyond. Born and raised in Toronto, Dan joined the Free Press in 1986.  Read more about Dan.

Dan’s columns are built on facts and reactions, but offer his personal views through arguments and analysis. The Free Press’ editing team reviews Dan’s columns before they are posted online or published in print — part of the our tradition, since 1872, of producing reliable independent journalism. Read more about Free Press’s history and mandate, and learn how our newsroom operates.