Dreaming in technicolour

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This article was published 19/09/2023 (932 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Dreaming big is good. It is often the first step in achieving something truly spectacular, in business, socially or in our personal lives.

Dreaming big in politics is equally important. Without vision and creative thinking for the future, complex social and economic problems would go unsolved and few projects of significance would ever get built. Canada would not have universal medicare and the Red River Floodway would never have been constructed.

Big dreams, though, must be couched in reality, otherwise they are merely pipe dreams.

Premier Heather Stefanson pledged last week that under the Progressive Conservative party’s plan, Manitoba could increase its population to two million people by 2030. That would require an additional 556,000 people over seven years in a province of 1.44 million. To meet that goal, the province would have to add nearly 80,000 people a year.

At no time in recent history has Manitoba’s population grown at that rate. Over the past 10 years, the number of people living in the province has increased an average of 18,336 per year. Doubling that to 36,672 would be a major accomplishment. Tripling it to 55,008 would be astronomical, but likely unattainable. More than quadrupling it to 80,000 is pure fantasy.

The main driver of Manitoba’s population growth is international immigration, as it is for the rest of the country. Without it, Manitoba would stagnate. The province’s natural population increase (births minus deaths) peaked at just over 6,000 in 2018-19, but has been falling since.

Manitoba loses more people to other provinces than it gains every year and therefore relies on international immigration for net growth.

“Manitoba’s 12-month immigration and other international levels are modern-day records, however net interprovincial outflows not seen since 1979-80 hamper growth,” the Manitoba Bureau of Statistics reported in its latest demographic estimates.

Stefanson says she can turn that around by offering a broad menu of tax cuts to individuals and businesses. Along with vague platitudes about “growing the economy” by making the province more competitive, the leader of the PC party says Manitoba’s population could reach two million by 2030.

“We’ve gotta dream big for this province,” Stefanson said after speaking to a business crowd last week. “I do believe this is a realistic dream for us. We need to set those goals and those targets to show we’re serious about growing the economy.”

Even if Manitoba could boost its population by more than four times its current rate, to suggest it could be done largely by cutting personal and business taxes is delusional. Tax rates are one of many factors businesses consider when deciding where to invest their capital. Making Manitoba competitive on taxes may be an important part of an overall strategy to attract and retain industry.

But on its own, it has only a minimal impact. There are many other considerations, including the availability of skilled labour, energy costs, labour laws, government incentives, geography and transportation links that affect where companies operate and create jobs.

Similarly, tax rates have little bearing on where individuals decide to live and work. Job and professional opportunities, housing costs and proximity to family regularly top the list of why people move in and out of the province.

Manitoba has done well in boosting its immigration numbers since it created the Provincial Nominee Program in the late 1990s. Continued effort to enhance that program is the province’s best bet to grow its population.

Promising voters deep tax cuts during an election may help the PC party divert attention away from areas where it believes it is most vulnerable, such as health care, but it would do very little to help Manitoba grow its population.