NDP’s challenge is to deliver on voters’ faith

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This article was published 12/12/2023 (960 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

There’s no question the single biggest challenge facing Manitoba’s NDP government is to fix the province’s beleaguered health-care system.

Health care was far and away the party’s main focus during the recent provincial election. Almost every day during the campaign, New Democrats hammered their Progressive Conservative opponents on long wait times for surgical and diagnostic procedures, hospital overcrowding and chronic staff shortages. The system is broken, the NDP repeated at every opportunity, and it claimed to have the solutions to fix it.

So, how high are expectations that the new government can succeed on health care where the Tories failed? Pretty high.

In a Free Press-Probe Research poll released this week, 38 per cent of respondents said the NDP will definitely or probably reduce wait times for surgeries and diagnostic tests. Another one-third said the new government “might” keep that promise “to some extent.” Only 23 per cent said there is “no way” they will make good on that pledge. Most of those were people who voted Tory in the provincial election.

In other words, 71 per cent of Manitobans think the NDP will definitely, probably or might reduce wait times. The numbers were similar for the NDP’s election promise to reopen emergency rooms at Victoria, Seven Oaks and Concordia hospitals (only 15 per cent said the NDP definitely won’t make good on that pledge).

Regardless of what the public thinks might happen, it’s clear people expect the NDP to deliver on health care.

But how much fixing does the NDP have to do to maintain its current level of popularity? There has to be at least moderate progress on reducing wait times and improving access to primary care.

There are limits to how much any provincial government in Canada can improve health care under the existing framework, where government’s micromanage health care and where there are no incentives for hospitals to improve patient care or increase patient volumes.

There is an expectation that the NDP will do better than the previous Tory government and make at least some progress on wait times and hospital overcrowding.

Canada’s single-payer, universal health-care system doesn’t work well at the best of times, at least compared with other developed countries around the world that operate universal health-care systems much differently than ours.

Nevertheless, there is an expectation that the NDP will do better than the previous Tory government and make at least some progress on wait times and hospital overcrowding.

That won’t be easy to do. The combination of a chronic shortage of health care professionals, an aging population and a lack of access to good primary care (including a family doctor) will make the task exceedingly difficult. Spending more money alone won’t fix the problem.

Still, increasing health-care budgets, innovating service delivery and stepping up recruitment and retention efforts will likely have some impact. It may not result in significant reductions in wait times or improved access to a family doctor. But it would at least stabilize wait times and make a dent in them over time. If the NDP can achieve that, it would probably meet public expectations.

But what if it doesn’t? What if emergency-room wait times continue to rise and there is little to no progress on reducing wait times for surgical and diagnostic procedures? If that happens, the NDP would have a more difficult time hanging on to power in the next provincial election, scheduled for 2027. Failing on health care wouldn’t automatically return the party to the opposition benches, but it would be a challenge to remain in government.

If the NDP fails to bring down wait times in health care, drives up the provincial deficit and does nothing to improve education or reduce poverty, the risk of being a one-term government would be very real.

It would depend on government performance in other areas, such as how well — or poorly — the NDP manages the public treasury and whether it makes progress in other areas, such as public schools, crime and homelessness.

If the NDP fails to bring down wait times in health care, drives up the provincial deficit and does nothing to improve education or reduce poverty, the risk of being a one-term government would be very real.

However, that seems unlikely. The 71 per cent of Manitobans in the Probe poll who believe the NDP will definitely, probably or might fix health care are likely on the right track. With ample resources and innovation, wait times will likely stabilize and probably improve modestly over time. The reason they rose as much as they did under the previous government is because health care budgets were reduced, front-line staff were treated poorly and an attempt to consolidate hospital operations in Winnipeg went sideways.

Eliminating those factors alone would improve the system.

Making even modest improvements in health care is a tall order. It will be the NDP’s biggest challenge over the next four years.

tom.brodbeck@freepress.mb.ca