‘Death by a thousand cuts’

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This article was published 28/02/2024 (672 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

When John Gunter takes customers across Churchill’s plain, he often sees fewer polar bears than he would a decade ago.

The biggest bears aren’t so big, he noted. Growing Frontier Northern Adventures’ northern lights tours has become “an insurance policy” to its polar bear excursions.

“We still are delivering an amazing polar bear experience,” said Gunter, the tour operation’s president. “But we’ve measured that change over time.”

Gunter was among the attendees listening to an expert from Polar Bears International speak about the climate crisis at a Business Council of Manitoba event Tuesday.

“My belief is that the private sector really needs to be taking the lead,” stated Steven Amstrup, Polar Bear International’s chief scientist emeritus.

“Global warming is death by a thousand cuts — we all have to do our part.”

Amstrup shared graphs showcasing, in a “business as usual” scenario, Winnipeg could be as warm as Omaha, Neb. by the end of the century.

The world has lost about three million square kilometres of sea ice, which polar bears rely on for hunting and raising cubs. The lost ice would cover more than four times Manitoba’s land mass.

Polar bears shed roughly one kilogram of body weight for every ice-free day, Amstrup shared. The mammals hunt seals on the ice.

“Polar bears can fast for a long, long time, but they can’t fast indefinitely,” Amstrup said.

Animals on land nearby can’t match seals’ nutritional value to polar bears, he added.

In 2011, an aerial survey of the Western Hudson Bay subpopulation of polar bears — which includes all of Manitoba’s population and some of Nunavut’s — found an estimated 949 polar bears.

Ten years later, an aerial survey by the government of Nunavut tracked roughly 618 polar bears in the same region.

“The Western Hudson Bay subpopulation is likely declining,” a spokesperson for the province of Manitoba wrote in an email.

Even so, the population seems to be faring better than the rest of the world, Amstrup said during his presentation.

“If there’s a likelihood of being able to save bears anywhere, it’s probably in (the) Hudson Bay,” he said.

The rate of decline in sea ice is lower in the western and southern portions of the Hudson Bay than anywhere else globally, Amstrup relayed.

“Polar bears have become the symbol for the province in a lot of ways,” said Bram Strain, the Business Council of Manitoba’s chief executive.

Major polar bear losses would have an impact socially and economically in the province, Strain continued.

Churchill’s tourism sector boosts Manitoba’s GDP by $41.7 million annually, according to a 2017 Travel Manitoba study. The Crown corporation is repeating the study for the 2023 calendar year, with expectations to finish the calculations by May of 2024, a spokesperson said.

Amstrup emphasized reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Strain, after the talk, noted 97 per cent of Manitoba’s power is already renewable through hydroelectricity.

“For us, it’s more of an efficiency play,” he said. “Where can we be more efficient?”

Gunter is transitioning his tundra buggies in Churchill from diesel to electric. He hopes to convert all 12 by 2030.

“Frontiers North having a fleet of electric tundra buggies isn’t going to make a dent in global climate change, but I think it’s a leadership position that’s important for us to take,” Gunter stated.

He wants organizations like Polar Bears International to be consulted on the development of the Hudson Bay Railway and Port of Churchill. Provincial and federal governments announced a $60 million boost to the trade hub’s construction last week.

Gunter questioned how the developments might affect local polar bear and beluga whale populations.

“What we have in Churchill is unique in the world and deserves protection,” he said.

Amstrup called trains “probably the best kind of transportation” to have around animals. It’s predictable and animals get used to it, he said.

gabrielle.piche@winnipegfreepress.com