Ehlers intrigue just beginning

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This article was published 13/06/2024 (476 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Nikolaj Ehlers and the Winnipeg Jets are coming to a crossroads.

After a season that saw him eclipse 60 points for the second time in his career in what was his first 82-game campaign since 2017-18, Ehlers is about to begin the seventh and final season of the deal he signed in the summer of 2017 — one full year before his entry-level contract was due to expire.

The 28-year-old from Denmark has provided nine mostly productive seasons for the team that selected him ninth overall in the 2014 NHL Draft.

There have been plenty of electrifying moments for the zone entry machine, but he’s often been used in more of a complementary role, even though he’s counted on as a primary point producer.

His ice time and usage has been a hot-button topic of conversation on message boards and social media, even if outgoing head coach Rick Bowness made a point of reinforcing that was often due to shift length.

Being relegated to a second power-play unit that doesn’t see a ton of ice time only exacerbates matters on that front, so it would be logical Ehlers wouldn’t be in a hurry to sign an extension with the Jets when he’s eligible to do so on July 1 — as various reports have suggested.

So where does that leave Ehlers and the Jets heading into what is sure to be another important offseason?

Let’s say the intrigue is just beginning and will only ramp up as the 2024 Draft approaches near the end of the month.

This is often the time of year when deals of this magnitude are made.

The Jets 2019 trade with the New York Rangers that involved defenceman Jacob Trouba heading to the Broadway Blueshirts for fellow blue-liner Neal Pionk and a first-round pick (20th overall) that turned into Ville Heinola is a good example of what the organization might be looking for — or at least considering.

A trade is nowhere near a guarantee at this point and with history as our guide, Jets general manager Kevin Cheveldayoff isn’t going to move Ehlers out if he doesn’t receive an offer that appeals to him.

The price tag for Ehlers is going to be high, even with only one season remaining with a cap hit of US$6 million and salary of US$6.75 million.

The underlying metrics for Ehlers should make him an appealing target and you can be sure plenty of projections would have the speedy winger as a strong candidate to hit 30-plus goals for the first time in his career and potentially be in the 80-point range on a team that considers increasing his minutes a priority.

Those on the other side of the argument wonder about the limited playoff production for Ehlers, who has four goals and 14 points in 37 post-season contests over six different runs.

Those statistics are shockingly low for a player as skilled as he is, though it hasn’t been for a lack of effort or will.

Sure, there is an element of unpredictability with Ehlers, whose combination of creativity and chaos can occasionally leave linemates guessing.

For a team that found itself in the middle of the pack offensively last season, losing his 25 even-strength goals and 61 points (seven of which came on the power play) would leave a sizable hole among the top-6 forwards — even if Cole Perfetti is ready for more responsibility and Brad Lambert turns out to be ready for a promotion.

For a team looking to get faster after another first-round exit, shipping out one of the quickest players on the roster will make that challenge a steeper one — depending on the return, of course.

Goal scoring, especially at even strength, is currency in the NHL and almost every team is looking for more of it.

Acquiring a player that can do it consistently, as Ehlers has as a seven-time 20-goal producer, should make him a player in demand.

Fitting in his US$6 million salary will be a challenge for many of the contenders, but there are a lot of teams looking to improve that have some additional salary cap flexibility.

What the offers are like could ultimately determine whether or not the Jets will ultimately go down this road.

After finishing tied for fourth in the NHL standings with the Florida Panthers last season, the Jets aren’t suddenly looking to take a step back.

There is no rebuild on the horizon, even if further tweaks to the roster are required for the Jets to take the next step.

They’re looking to contend and work on exorcising a few playoff demons after that.

So while moving out Ehlers for a package that either includes a top-4 D-man or a top-6 forward and a high draft pick has some merit, it’s not the only outcome available.

Keeping Ehlers in the fold, where he could see his playing time increased under incoming head coach Scott Arniel, is a legitimate possibility.

A promotion to the top line and first power-play unit figures to entice Ehlers to at least consider a contract extension down the road.

Arniel appeared on the Frankly Speaking podcast with Frank Seravalli of Daily Faceoff this week and expressed his desire to keep Ehlers in the fold.

“The one thing about Nik is that he’s a game-breaker,” said Arniel. “If you’re going to get through 82 games and try to eliminate eight teams in your conference and get into the playoffs, you need those guys. There were lots of times when the game would be tight or we would be down a goal and he could do things that others can’t do. He pushes defence back, he has such great speed and he has such good vision.

“He always has a spot in our top-6. That’s a given… For me as a coach, I want him. I need him. I need that offence. I need that speed. The speed is probably the biggest factor for us. We’ll see how everything plays itself out.”

Of course there are risks attached to having an important player go into the final season of an expiring contract.

The Jets had two of their top three D-men go through that exact situation last season and there were no issues whatsoever when it came to level of play.

Dylan DeMelo suited up in all 82 games and had a career year offensively, while Brenden Dillon dressed in 77 games (missing three for a suspension and being held out of the regular season finale for precautionary purposes) and posted a career-high for goals (eight) before he was sidelined with a hand injury at the end of Game 3 against the Colorado Avalanche.

It’s impossible to know for sure how the prospect of an uncertain future would impact Ehlers’ play, if at all, but he wouldn’t be lacking motivation.

A significant payday — including a raise from his US$6 million AAV — is coming for Ehlers, whether that’s with the Jets or another organization.

That’s why the decision on his future is such an important one for the Jets, whether it’s going to be made in the coming weeks or several months down the road.

ken.wiebe@freepress.mb.ca

X: @WiebesWorld