What do the Jets do with Perfetti?

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 18/07/2024 (459 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

The next contract for Cole Perfetti has already been a subject of great debate, with plenty of folks lining up on either side of the argument and offering their two cents on why he should either take a bridge deal or opt for a long-term extension with the Winnipeg Jets.

Perfetti, the 10th overall pick in the 2020 NHL Draft, has completed his three-year, entry-level contract and is coming off his most productive season with the Jets.

There were plenty of important steps forward when it comes to Perfetti’s progression and the final raw numbers (19 goals, 38 points in 71 games) were impressive.

Now, that’s not to say that it was smooth sailing for Perfetti, who got off to an excellent start and was operating at nearly a point-per-game level before an extended dry spell hit.

By the time the season was over, Perfetti had been a healthy scratch 11 times in the regular season and another four times during the Stanley Cup playoffs before he was inserted for Game 5 against the Colorado Avalanche.

Losing his spot in the top-6 wasn’t how Perfetti envisioned the season finishing, but he handled the adversity well and regained his offensive mojo down the stretch, which is something that should benefit him this fall – and beyond.

Even before the departures of Tyler Toffoli (San Jose Sharks) and Sean Monahan (Columbus Blue Jackets) in free agency, Perfetti was a safe bet to take on an expanded role with the Jets this fall.

Jets head coach Scott Arniel has spoken on several occasions since getting the top job about the strides Perfetti took after two campaigns that ended prematurely due to injury and another that was limited to 32 games with the Manitoba Moose (as a 19 year old) during the COVID-shortened season.

Arniel reiterated that opinion during an interview with the Free Press during the week of the 2024 NHL Draft in Las Vegas.

“The biggest thing with Cole is that he’s missed a lot of hockey,” said Arniel, noting he had a conversation with Perfetti a few weeks ago. “For me, this was a great building block. He had missed out on a lot of growth. This was a good first (full) year for him. I don’t want to say it was his rookie year, but at the end of the day, he came in, got the experience and had a heck of a year. Scoring 19 goals is hard to do in this league.

“Now it’s the next step and the building block, now it’s about where he goes next year with his game. He changed his training last year (with Matt Nichol) and he’s already deep into that this year. He has a skillset that can help us. You need your depth scoring and he gave us that last year.”

Arniel believes in the player and recognizes the impact Perfetti can have as he continues to progress as a player.

There’s clearly another level for Perfetti to reach and the chances are good that he’s just getting started.

Perfetti could still find himself in the mix to be the Jets’ second-line centre – a job he had coming out of training camp last fall before he was shifted back to the wing just a few games into last season – but remaining on the wing is also an option.

There also could be an expanded role on the power play, given his vision, smarts and quick release.

Which brings us back to the issue at hand: what is that next deal for Perfetti going to look like?

That’s where the crystal ball is a little cloudy.

Before weighing in with an answer, let’s take a look at the first 10 Jets’ first-round draft picks and what happened when it came time to sign their second contracts.

Six of those players signed bridge deals (all of them of the two-year variety, though Jack Roslovic’s second deal was signed with the Columbus Blue Jackets after he was part of the trade that featured Patrik Laine and Pierre-Luc Dubois), while three of them inked long-term extensions and the other, Finnish forward Kristian Vesalainen, is playing overseas, is still a restricted free agent and the Jets retain his rights until the summer of 2026.

The biggest bridge deal was signed by Laine, but that came after he recorded 110 goals and 184 points over the course of his first three NHL seasons – two of which came when he was still a teenager.

Of the three long-term deals, they were signed by centre Mark Scheifele (eight years, $49 million), left-winger Kyle Connor (seven years, $50 million) and winger Nikolaj Ehlers (seven years, $42 million).

Scheifele and Connor were coming out of their entry-level contracts, while Ehlers signed his extension days before the third year of his first deal began.

So, there is a precedent for going with the long-term contract and Perfetti is someone the Jets believe can grow into an important core piece.

There has been some comparable movement around the NHL in recent weeks, with the Los Angeles Kings inking 2020 second overall selection Quinton Byfield to a five-year deal worth $31.25 million ($6.25 million AAV) and Florida Panthers second-line centre Anton Lundell inking a six-year deal worth $30 million ($5 million) AAV with the Stanley Cup champions.

This is simply a point of reference, as Perfetti’s consecutive season-ending injuries means that he’s played fewer games and produced a bit less (29 goals, 75 points in 140 games) than both Byfield (28 goals, 88 points in 179) and Lundell (43 goals, 112 points in 216 games) during the regular season.

But these aren’t the only numbers to consider.

He still finished fifth on the Jets in goals, despite the dry spell of 23 games without scoring a goal (and delivering just two assists during that time).

Perfetti, who turned 22 on Jan. 1, also produced more goals and points/60 than Byfield and Lundell and you can be sure that’s a point that would come up in negotiations.

With that in mind, one would expect Perfetti’s AAV to fall somewhere between Lundell and Byfield, should he decide to go that route.

Perfetti has a higher offensive ceiling than Lundell, who was chosen 12th overall in 2020 and has an additional 54 playoff games on his resume – including consecutive trips to the Stanley Cup final.

Byfield has been used mostly on the wing but is a natural centre and projects to be more of a power forward, while Lundell is known as an excellent defensive pivot with some offensive upside.

There’s an argument to be made for Perfetti to follow the lead of Scheifele, Connor and Ehlers and guarantee himself a significant sum of money.

That would also qualify as a win for the Jets organization, as the cost of extensions for consistent point producers usually rises, even if a bridge deal would lower the AAV in the short term – and give both sides a better idea of the long-term value for the player.

Only Perfetti and his representatives know for sure what he’s feeling, though you can understand why he would prefer to see how his usage might change under Arniel before making a long-term commitment.

That would make sense on a number of levels.

While there is always some element of risk involved for the player to wait, Perfetti can afford to be patient and bet on himself.

His best hockey is ahead of him and the salary cap is on the rise, which should benefit his future earning potential.

It’s the primary reason Perfetti is more likely to follow in the footsteps of Josh Morrissey and Jacob Trouba, who opted for bridge deals with an AAV just north of $3 million.

ken.wiebe@freepress.mb.ca

X: @WiebesWorld