One size does not fit all

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 24/08/2024 (454 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

It seems inevitable that the next federal election will end up making some fairly significant changes to immigration policy.

The current Liberal government is already trying to slow the inflow of immigrants through channels that have been overwhelmed or misused in the past. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre — who is the prime minister in waiting if opinion polls are to be believed — has promised “much lower” total immigration numbers if he is elected.

Either way, it seems as if we’re going to get fewer people coming to Canada through all of the various programs and streams we offer now. How will that impact the country in general, and Manitoba in particular?

One of the irreconcilable flaws in immigration policy is that it is boilerplate for the whole country. Regardless of whether a region needs more people, or needs fewer, immigrants are legally entitled — and rightly so — to go wherever they want, whenever they want. That creates great disparities between regions, provinces and cities.

Take Winnipeg for example. Both the city and the broader Census Metropolitan Area (CMA), which captures all of the principal bedroom communities outside city limits, is growing by leaps and bounds, in large part because of immigration.

Total city population grew 3.9 per cent between 2022 and 2023, bringing the city’s total population to nearly 840,000. The CMA — which includes East and West St. Paul, Headingley, Macdonald, Niverville, Ritchot, Springfield, St. Clements, St. François Xavier and Tache — is expected to exceed 938,000 residents this year and grow steadily in the years to come.

The end result? Sometime between now and 2031, CMA population will exceed one million people, with the city proper forecast to hit that milestone in 2046.

A steadily growing population is the very definition of a blessing and a curse. Experts in geography and economics generally believe that more people translates into more economic activity and more taxes for government to pay for services. That has certainly been the case in Winnipeg and surrounding communities, where the economy has been relatively strong.

However, at the same time, the growing population is putting enormous stress on social and health services, and the supply of housing, both for purchase and for rent. All provinces are experiencing the same service and housing crunch and to date, no one jurisdiction seems to have cracked the code.

However, if the solution proposed is to dramatically cut back on immigration, then some jurisdictions — Manitoba chief among them — will suffer more than most.

Manitoba loses more people to other provinces than it gains. That makes the population growth that comes from immigration more important here than in, say, Vancouver or Toronto, which generally see a positive net interprovincial migration. If total immigration numbers come down, Manitoba could actually start to see a net drop in population, which would be economically devastating.

Tyler Kroeker, a senior economist with the city, said overall the population explosion we’ve seen in recent years should moderate, with Winnipeg’s total population growing at just under one per cent annually. Take away a steady flow of immigrants “and our population starts to shrink almost immediately.”

There are big changes coming to immigration policy in Canada. One can only hope the victor of next year’s federal election remembers that fewer immigrants, although an important concern in some regions, may not be the best policy for others.