Best not to provoke the unstable bully moving in again next door

Opinion

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 28/11/2024 (310 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

The problem with living next door to an economic powerhouse such as the United States is that when its citizens decide to elect an unstable president, a country such as Canada has little choice but to use unconventional means to survive.

Canada has long been dependent on bilateral trade with the U.S. to maintain its high standard of living. It relies heavily on exports of oil and other natural resources, manufactured goods and a wide range of services to the U.S. to grow its economy and pay for expensive public services such as medicare.

So when a neurotic president-elect such as Donald Trump threatens to impose a 25 per cent tariff on all Canadian exports to the U.S. unless the country meets some random and largely baseless demand, politicians north of the longest undefended border in the world will have to employ previously unimaginable strategies to counteract it.

Trump, who will be sworn in as president on Jan. 20, posted on social media Monday that he will impose the tariffs immediately upon taking office and will keep them in place until action is taken to reduce the flow of illegal migrants, illicit drugs and “crime” into the U.S. from its closest neighbours.

“Thousands of people are pouring through Mexico and Canada, bringing Crime and Drugs at levels never seen before,” he wrote, without providing any supporting evidence to substantiate his ludicrous claims.

So where does that leave the Canadian government and provincial premiers? How should they respond to this political lunacy?

Mostly they have to figure out how to stroke Trump’s fragile and unpredictable ego so that he feels he gained a victory. That will be no easy feat, given Trump’s irrational, deceitful and corrupt tendencies. This is not a normal, sane debate about international trade or border security.

Canada and the U.S. share a border that spans nearly 9,000 kilometres. There are illegal goods and activity that flow both ways between the two countries. There always will be. It’s impossible to eliminate it entirely.

Still, there are robust measures in place to combat those illegal activities and strong co-operation between Canadian and U.S. security agencies to protect border integrity. There has been for decades.

The Canada Border Services Agency and the RCMP work closely with the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, the U.S. Customs and Border Protection and the U.S. Coast Guard to fight the flow of illegal goods on both sides of the border and to investigate crimes.

Should there be more resources dedicated to that task, not only from Canada but the U.S.? Maybe. But that should be decided through an intelligent, evidence-based discourse between officials from both countries, not driven by a social media rant from an unstable U.S. president-elect.

Frighteningly, though, the latter will likely prevail.

The facts will not matter on this issue. This will be about trying to appease a U.S. president whose emotional state and unpredictable mindset will be a moving target over the next four years.

Perhaps Quebec Premier François Legault said it best Wednesday: “I don’t think it’s time to play at, ‘Is it true or not that our borders aren’t secure?’”

In other words, it doesn’t matter what the facts are. Canada simply needs to find a way to make Trump happy to ward off the imposition of a tariff that, if applied, would plunge Canada into a recession, drive up inflation on both sides of the border and significantly harm the U.S. economy.

It doesn’t matter whether this is a bluff by Trump or some twisted ploy by him to satisfy his fragile ego. Canada has no choice but to take the threat seriously and will have to do everything in its power to bow to his wishes.

And it won’t end there. This political circus will continue as long as he is in office.

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Canada can talk all it wants about trying to diversify its export market to be less reliant on the U.S., or to take retaliatory action against its biggest trading partner if the tariff is imposed. But none of that would work.

About three-quarters of Canada’s exports flow to the U.S. That is not likely to change much, no matter how hard Canada tries to pivot to emerging markets elsewhere in the world. And retaliatory action against Trump’s administration would likely only make things worse.

Canada’s physical proximity to the U.S. and its similar cultural trading practices will always mean that the U.S. will remain Canada’s most important export market. It must be preserved.

So Canada has little choice but to at least give the appearance that it is satisfying the wishes of Trump’s demands without losing too much of its sovereignty. The alternative would be catastrophic for Canada — and ironically for the U.S., too.

tom.brodbeck@freepress.mb.ca

Tom Brodbeck
Columnist

Tom Brodbeck is an award-winning author and columnist with over 30 years experience in print media. He joined the Free Press in 2019. Born and raised in Montreal, Tom graduated from the University of Manitoba in 1993 with a Bachelor of Arts degree in economics and commerce. Read more about Tom.

Tom provides commentary and analysis on political and related issues at the municipal, provincial and federal level. His columns are built on research and coverage of local events. The Free Press’s editing team reviews Tom’s columns before they are posted online or published in print – part of the Free Press’s tradition, since 1872, of producing reliable independent journalism. Read more about Free Press’s history and mandate, and learn how our newsroom operates.