Manitoba exports to U.S., China plummet

While Manitoba’s exports to the United States and China plunged earlier this year, the dollar value of its imports soared.

U.S. imports to Manitoba hit roughly $10.97 billion in January through May — an eight per cent increase from the same time in 2024. Meanwhile, imports from China jumped 6.9 per cent year-over-year, totalling $684 million.

“It’s surprising,” said Chuck Davidson, president of the Manitoba Chambers of Commerce.

He’s tracked a sentiment across businesses to bring their supply chains closer to home. Uncertainty has rocked the private sector since Donald Trump was elected U.S. president in November. Tariffs and tariff threats have made regular headlines, shaking operations and causing companies to pause future investments.

Davidson pointed to a weaker Canadian dollar: some companies can’t get the materials they require within Canada and must pull from the United States. Those goods are likely more expensive, he surmised.

A Canadian dollar equated to US$0.73 on Wednesday. The exchange rate began increasing last fall, ahead of the U.S. election.

Companies also bulk bought in preparation for tariffs, noted Fletcher Baragar, a University of Manitoba economics professor. The rush could’ve shown in the January through May import numbers, recently released by the Manitoba Bureau of Statistics.

Manitoba’s exports to the U.S. dropped 14.7 per cent year-over-year; they fell 29.8 per cent when looking at China. The export values totalled $5.55 billion and $481 million, respectively.

Davidson cited the “Trump factor” for the U.S. decrease. The Trump administration has placed tariffs on aluminum, steel and items not meeting the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement on trade.

Globally, countries have been slapped with U.S. tariffs. It’s affected businesses like Kathy Tran-Riese’s.

Tran-Riese opted to pause sales in the U.S., starting in May, to avoid the cost of her glasses frames more than doubling.

KayTran Eyewear imports frames to Winnipeg from China before exporting to the United States. The U.S. deems the goods Chinese by their country of origin; Trump stripped China of an exemption where packages under $800 were shielded from tariffs.

“I had a pretty large consumer base in the U.S.,” Tran-Riese said Wednesday.

Roughly half of her revenue came from the southern clientele. However, since halting shipments to the U.S., she’s seen an 80 per cent jump in sales: she’s been holding pop-ups across Canada.

“(There’s) an initial myth that you think you have to … have a stronghold in the U.S. to build good revenue,” said Tran-Riese, who had Canadian customers asking for pop-ups before Trump’s inauguration. “This has really taught me otherwise.”

Boosting interprovincial trade will help lessen reliance on United States exports, Davidson said.

So will increasing trade to other countries, both he and Baragar relayed.

Manitoba’s non-U.S. exports jumped 6.5 per cent year over year, when comparing January through May. The total reached $2.55 billion.

Non-U.S. imports rose at a faster pace — up 10.3 per cent, to $3.65 billion.

“I suspect we’ll probably see more of that in the future, but those numbers are proportionately very, very small,” Baragar said. “There’s enormous potential for growth, but Canada — certainly for the last 50 years — hasn’t really been looking in those directions.”

Nineteen European delegates visited Manitoba in April, expressing a desire for more trade. Africa and other Pacific Rim countries are also candidates for future growth, from Baragar’s view.

Chinese tariffs remain in place. Cam Dahl, general manager of Manitoba Pork, said he’s “not surprised” by the statistic of fewer exports.

China placed tariffs of 100 per cent on Canadian canola oil, canola meal and peas, and of 25 per cent on some pork, fish and seafood. The measures came as retaliation to Canadian tariffs on Chinese electric vehicle imports.

Dahl is meeting with Canadian, American and Mexican counterparts later this week to discuss trade, among other topics.

“It just shows — the understanding of the value of that integrated market isn’t just in Canada, it goes across North America,” he said. “There’s just so much uncertainty.”

Prime Minister Mark Carney has circled July 21 as a Canada-U.S. deal deadline. The outcome will shape Manitoba’s import and export numbers for the rest of the year, Baragar forecast.

British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Quebec, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia joined Manitoba in experiencing a year-over-year decrease in international merchandise exports in May. (Manitoba’s drop was the largest, at 19 per cent.)

Energy, forestry and industrial equipment exports plunged that month, Statistics Canada data shared publicly by the Saskatchewan government show.

Generally, Manitoba exports decreased nine per cent — to $8.11 billion — when comparing 2025’s first five months to 2024’s. Imports jumped 8.5 per cent, to $14.62 billion.

Manitoba trucking firms have been shuttering and laying off staff due to less demand, the Manitoba Trucking Association confirmed last week.

The provincial government is increasing its export support program and passed the Fair Trade in Canada Act to promote trade within Canada and abroad, Business Minister Jamie Moses said in a statement.

The New Democrats hired Richard Madan, a former reporter, to become Manitoba’s trade representative to the U.S.

gabrielle.piche@winnipegfreepress.com