Grey Cup week could feature game-changing economic score for Churchill, political triumph for Kinew

Opinion

It is an incredible economic and political gift that could keep giving to Manitoba’s NDP government for years, if not decades, to come.

This week, Prime Minister Mark Carney released a list of five major projects that his government would fast-track to give Canada more economic independence from the United States. No Manitoba projects made that first short list, but something called “Churchill Plus” was identified as being under consideration for approval in the second round.

Churchill Plus includes improvements to the Port of Churchill in Manitoba’s North, including the provision of an icebreaker ship and possibly an all-weather road, to allow greater access to the port and provide improved transportation links for northern and Indigenous communities.

There is no way to exaggerate the economic and political dividends that could flow from Churchill Plus.

Generations of Manitoba politicians have fought to have the Port of Churchill and Hudson Bay Railway play a larger role in the country’s commodity transportation network. Unfortunately, competing business and political forces had largely rendered these efforts unsuccessful.

Big grain companies and railways decided decades ago that agricultural commodities should travel on an east-west network, not north-south. Farmers were forced to truck their grain to mainline railways as feeder routes were abandoned and the small community elevators were reduced to dust.

At the same time, potent lobbies supporting ports in British Columbia, Ontario and Quebec — along with St. Lawrence Seaway interests — ensured that government did not make transformative investments in a deep-water port on the west coast of Hudson Bay. As a result, successive provincial and federal governments provided subsistence levels of funding to keep the railway and port on life-support.

Now, however, it seems as if the stars have aligned for Churchill. And possibly for Premier Wab Kinew.

Although it’s still not clear what kind of federal support there will be for projects on the prime minister’s fast-tracking list, or even how the fast-tracking would work in practical terms, getting the blessing of Ottawa’s Major Projects Office would be a huge boost for the NDP government here in Manitoba.

In many ways, this opportunity plays very well into the DNA of New Democrat governments here.

While Progressive Conservatives have used their time in power to prioritize balanced budgets, smaller government and tax cuts, the NDP has consistently positioned itself as a builder.

During the administrations of former NDP premiers Gary Doer and Greg Selinger, government built the Keeyask generating station, Bipole III transmission line, a generational expansion of the Red River Floodway, a major redevelopment of downtown Winnipeg — including a new arena and the Canadian Museum for Human Rights, the first national museum to be built outside Ottawa.

PC Premier Brian Pallister, who followed Doer and Selinger, focused on smaller government and billions of dollars in tax cuts. In his first two years in office, Pallister gleefully cancelled some major projects the NDP had lined up while avoiding big-ticket investments in infrastructure or amenities.

If he can bring Churchill Plus to fruition, Kinew will add his name to the long list of NDP builders. Of course, it is not certain Churchill Plus will go ahead. The path to designing, funding and launching that massive project is going to be very long and arduous.

Indigenous leaders across Canada have expressed concern about any efforts by Ottawa and the provinces to fast-track projects that might tread on treaty or land rights. Kinew, in particular, has tried to walk a fine line between celebrating the inclusion of Churchill Plus in Carney’s list of possible projects to come while pledging that he will not trample on the legal or economic interests of First Nations.

If there was a moment in the near future where some First Nations offered opposition to some of the elements of Churchill Plus — the flashpoint would surely be the construction of an all-weather road in the North — then Kinew could find himself trying to navigate politically untenable waters.

There is also a question of the cost-benefit of the all-weather road. The expense of creating and then maintaining an unpaved, all-weather road are astronomical. On the east side of Lake Winnipeg, Indigenous leaders have proposed a $500-million, 256-kilometre all-weather route connecting St. Theresa Point First Nation to Berens River, which is connected to the existing provincial road system.

The costs of building a similar road to connect Churchill to the existing road system would be considerably higher, given the region’s high water table and uncertain geology.

Finally, there is also the possibility that Kinew is not able to get Churchill Plus to a stage where Ottawa gives it a full Major Projects Office blessing. There isn’t much time left for him to get his ducks in a row; Carney said this week that additional projects would get the green light before November’s Grey Cup kicks off at Princess Auto Stadium.

The announcement of a transformative economic project during Grey Cup week here in Winnipeg would be a moment of political triumph that could carry the Kinew government forward for years to come.

However, if the premier stumbles before crossing the goal line, he may miss his chance to add his name to that long list of NDP builders.

dan.lett@freepress.mb.ca