Big drop in snowbirds heading to U.S. this winter, as many look overseas instead

MONTREAL – At the Bickley RV Park along Florida’s Gulf Coast, fewer Canadians walk its palm-dotted roads or lounge by its communal pool.

“There was a couple at Bickley that did just cancel their leases and contracts with us because of the uncertainties,” says Dorothy Brown, who manages the park, a community for adults aged 55 and over, in a recent interview.

“They just literally said they were going to give up coming to the United States for a year or two.”

Two of 12 Canadian groups at the 189-site park in the Tampa Bay area have cancelled their six-month leases since March, Brown said.

They’re not alone. The turned-off travellers are among tens of thousands of Canadian snowbirds who have opted not to flock to the U.S. this winter, with many choosing to fly overseas instead, a new survey found.

The number of respondents who intend to head stateside this year fell 15 per cent from 2024, according to a poll from Snowbird Advisor, an online resource for Canadians wintering outside the country.

The poll surveyed more than 4,000 snowbirds in late October and cannot be assigned a margin of error because it was conducted online.

Meanwhile, the tally of snowbirds — residents who spend at least a month in a warmer location during winter — planning travel to Mexico, Spain or other sun-splashed spots has nearly doubled.

Nonetheless, some 70 per cent of respondents still expect to go to the U.S., drawn by condo ownership, logistics or ties of kinship and community.

“Many of them own properties in the U.S. Many of them drive for the winter and if they want to have their car with them, the U.S. is the only option,” said Snowbird Advisor Insurance president Stephen Fine.

“Many of them have communities and friends and family that they want to spend their winters with.”

The 15 per cent decrease in U.S.-bound snowbirds amounts to a smaller decline than in other cross-border travel segments, such as short-term leisure travel.

The number of Canadian residents who returned by car from the U.S. fell to 1.4 million in October, a 30.5 per cent drop from the same period in 2024, according to preliminary data from Statistics Canada.

Canadians’ growing aversion to America stems from a mix of factors including political tensions over U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs, fear of potential mistreatment at the border and a lopsided exchange rate, with the loonie worth about 71 cents US.

“Some travellers, they will say, ‘No, I’m not travelling for leisure,'” said Joanna Yu, a senior manager of U.S. home equity financing at the Royal Bank of Canada. 

But many still funnel south.

“Florida is still among the top destinations for Canadians,” she said. Arizona, California and Texas remain high on the list as well.

Those sunny states continue to lure northerners despite a new rule requiring Canadians staying 30 days or more to register with the U.S. government. That process mandates that travellers be photographed, fingerprinted and charged US$30 at the border, according to U.S. Customs and Border Protection.

Many of those travellers who opt to steer clear of the U.S. have simply swapped in a different country, survey data suggests. The proportion of self-described snowbirds planning to stay home this year sat virtually unchanged — seven per cent this year versus six per cent in 2024 — despite the slide in U.S. travel.

The planned duration abroad is also comparable. Just like last year, close to two-thirds of snowbirds expect to live in warmer climes for at least three months, Fine said.

Experts had expected a decrease in time spent away for reasons ranging from foreign travel restrictions to financial concerns or a more exotic locale. “But that doesn’t seem to have factored in,” he said.

The top five destinations beyond the U.S. are Mexico, Spain, Portugal, Costa Rica and the Caribbean, he said. But spots farther afield are also proving popular, including Australia, New Zealand and Thailand — perhaps buoyed by “White Lotus” after the latest season of the hit satirical comedy series was set there.

With Canadians avoiding stateside trips, Americans are feeling the pain.

The United States will see travel spending by foreign visitors drop by US$5.7 billion or 3.2 per cent this year, according to the U.S. Travel Association.

“Significantly fewer visits from Canada are the primary driver of this decrease, and the volume of visits from countries other than Canada are expected to be flat,” the association said in its travel forecast last month.

Back at the Bickley RV Park, Brown reflects on this year’s missing residents.

“They were not happy with the situation happening between the two countries,” she says.

“I would welcome you guys any time of the day, because Canadians are so much more respectful and appreciative of what they have here compared to the everyday U.S. people.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 17, 2025.