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Homelessness is a (Systemic) Choice

The 2024 Street Census showed us that homelessness in Winnipeg is getting worse. The count returned 2,469 folks this time, up from 1,256 in 2022 (nearly doubling in two years). It’s obvious to see that the challenge has grown – all one has to do is look around.

While it’s easy to blame the individual, it’s misguided and detrimental to progress ― sure, something the person did might have prompted their experience of homelessness, but those ‘decisions’ take place within a context shaped by countless factors beyond their control. If the likelihood of homelessness were random, and the situation prompted simply by individual choices, we should see various demographics represented in line with the broader city’s demographics.

But we don’t ― not even close.

From the Street Census we learned that, of those experiencing homelessness:

• 79.9% are Indigenous (up from 68.2% in 2022 and an overrepresentation of six times the city’s 12.4% Indigenous population).
• 12.9% are newcomers (way up from 3% in 2022).
• 49% were part of the child welfare system as a child or youth (in line with 50.2% in 2022, compared to 2.9% of Manitoba’s kids being in child welfare at any given time). With 91% of children in Manitoba’s child welfare system being Indigenous, we are building a pipeline that guarantees the next generation of young folks experiencing homelessness will continue to be disproportionately Indigenous.

Homelessness is not random ― we are setting kids up to fail. To make this even clearer, the most common first age of homelessness is 18, right when someone ages out of the child welfare system. But the age of first experience also isn’t random ― those “most affected by structural barriers experience homelessness at younger ages.”

To put it in the words of the report: “These are not the result of individual circumstances, but rather are the consequences of structural and historical forces.”

We know the solutions: building rent-geared-to-income social housing with supports ― after all, Housing First is not housing only. While many have a brief occurrence and likely need little to no supports upon rehousing, those who experience chronic homelessness may need continued supports.

Expanding the available base of housing takes time, and the results of investment won’t be visible immediately. The number of people experiencing homelessness is increasing – and the rate of growth is increasing as well. Even just doing simple math, we added ~600 folks each year from 2022 to 2024 (the inflow). As we ramp up housing across the province, it may take some time to get to 600/year (the outflow). So, while the number of housing units increases, the absolute number of people experiencing homelessness will still continue to grow – until the outflow meets or exceeds the inflow.

But every person housed counts.

And it has a generational impact on those to come – kids who, through no fault of their own, are born into the circumstances that are overrepresented in homelessness. Every family reunited, every person housed, and every child raised in stability has a meaningful impact on the future inflow into homelessness. After all, the people who will experience homelessness in 2040 and 2050 are children today – and how the next few years of their lives unfold will change their future.

Intervening early creates an opportunity for the outflow to catch up and pass the inflow – it’ll actively be getting better. Once we get there, the system will be moving at full speed and on its way to ending homelessness – one person at a time.