There’s no holiday from tariffs

Atop a bookshelf is a miniature scene — of bookshelves.

It’s the only one of its kind inside Whodunit Mystery Bookstore, unlike management’s initial vision. The Bumsteds planned to sell diorama-esque book nook sets for the holiday season.

That changed following a confusing roller-coaster of tariffs implemented and reversed on both sides of the Canada-United States border.

“(It) prevented us from starting to carry a product that we were excited about,” Michael Bumsted said, pointing to the book nook.

Manitoba retailers are feeling ripple effects of United States-led global trade wars as the holiday season approaches.

“For us, it’s the unpredictability,” Bumstead said Tuesday. “It’s more about delays and timing than it is about the tariffs themselves.”

Transport companies are learning new rules and, often, import costs from the U.S. are higher than in the past. It’s hard to know what a book’s final price or arrival date might be, Michael said.

“Our sales are affected by books not getting here on time,” added Wendy Bumsted, the shop owner and Michael’s mother.

There’s no way around it: Whodunit can’t choose where novels are printed, the Bumsteds said. Meantime, higher costs of paper and ink are affecting their sale prices.

A Henderson Highway music instrument shop and a Corydon Avenue women’s clothing outlet have both passed along price hikes due to new tariffs globally.

Still, U.S. tariffs generally aren’t leading to noticeable cost increases on holiday presents, said John Graham, the Retail Council of Canada’s director of government relations for the Prairies.

Canada removed 25 per cent counter-tariffs on most U.S. imports in September. Supply chains are more predictable, there’s lower inflation and a softer global economy, Graham listed.

“With CUSMA (the Canada–United States–Mexico Agreement) in place, at this point, there is a level of protection against price inflation,” Graham said. “At the same time, we’re seeing retailers aggressively compete for business.”

Manitoba saw a 2.9 per cent year-over-year increase in its inflation rate last October (excluding food). Its clothing and footwear sector saw a one per cent year-over-year change.

Nationally, toys and audio equipment were less expensive — by 1.3 and 3.9 per cent, respectively — year-over-year in October, Statistics Canada data compiled by the Retail Council show.

Large retailers are shipping directly to Canada instead of routing goods through the United States, Graham said.

“When the counter-tariffs dropped, that was like the best thing that could happen for us,” said Trish Wittmann, co-owner of Riley Grae.

Small U.S. vendors consume roughly 40 per cent of the Corydon Avenue gift shop’s stock. The makers are hard to replace, Wittmann said: “Artists have their own style.”

Another 40 per cent of Riley Grae is filled with Canadian products. The store used to get American orders online, but that’s dried up, Wittmann said. She figures her U.S. customers are confused over how much they’ll pay in shipping costs.

“If we have something here made in China or France or the U.K. or Canada, it’s all variable tariff rates,” Wittmann said.

“That’s too much for me to know and learn. That’s something, sadly, the U.S. folks need to be aware of.”

Whodunit Mystery Bookstore is asked about books’ countries of origin — down to the province or state — before they cross the border.

“It’s really difficult, if a book was printed in the 1970s, to really decode,” said Michael, whose shop sells used and new books.

Whodunit has stopped promoting U.S. shipments. Previously, it might send two or three orders south per week.

A Little Art Boutique fills its shelves with Canadian makers, including wares from Manitoba. Tariffs may have trickled into some prices, said owner Kelly Radcliffe.

Supplies that Canadian artists use may be subject to price increases. And ultimately, that lands with the customer, Radcliffe noted, adding entrepreneurs have shifted to more expensive couriers following Canada Post strikes.

“Out of all the holiday seasons, this one is… important because of what’s going on, to shop local or Canadian,” she said.

She’s tracked more people shopping at A Little Art Boutique this year. A ‘buy Canadian’ push helps, Radcliffe said, though word of mouth is also a driver.

“It’s obviously been a very difficult year for small businesses who have had to deal with all the uncertainty that comes around this trade war,” said Tyler Slobogian, a senior policy analyst for the Canadian Federation of Independent Business.

Half of CFIB members have reported higher expenses due to tariffs, Slobogian said. He’s also clocked new local business competition: ChatGPT.

Walmart and Shopify have inked deals with Open AI to allow for purchases through ChatGPT. Shoppers are increasingly using ChatGPT for gift suggestions, making retail more competitive this year, said Graham from the Retail Council.

gabrielle.piche@winnipegfreepress.com