Concessions could help Canada keep lower tariffs in trade deal review: strategist

TORONTO – The review of North America’s free trade agreement will play a large part in determining the trajectory of the Canadian economy, as one strategist says he is optimistic that certain concessions could help achieve a positive outcome. 

Ashish Dewan, a senior investment strategist at Vanguard, said the Canadian economy is still significantly reliant on U.S. trade despite attempts to diversify its trading partners.

He said Canada currently has a “trade advantage,” due to a lower effective tariff rate compared with other nations, sitting around six per cent compared with about 16 to 19 per cent faced by other nations. 

“What’s really having a negative impact on the Canadian economy are those Section 232 sectoral tariffs,” Dewan said. 

Tariffs covered by Section 232 of the U.S. Trade Expansion Act of 1962 cover a wide range of products like steel, aluminum and lumber and are generally not exempt under the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement, better known as CUSMA. 

Dewan said that in return for dropping some of those levies, U.S. policy-makers may want to make American dairy products more readily available in Canada, as well as reforms to the Online Streaming Act. 

“I think generally if we provide some concessions to the U.S., they would work with us,” Dewan said. 

“I don’t know what the discussions are, but overall, it does seem to be looking a little bit more optimistic because the U.S. needs us and the two countries are fairly linked.”

He said U.S. President Donald Trump’s general approach is to be “very transactional.” 

“I think he can be negotiated with, bottom line,” Dewan said. 

Whether Canada’s efforts to diversify its trading partners will upset CUSMA negotiations is unclear, he said.

Last week, Canada reached a deal with Beijing to slash tariffs on a set number of Chinese electric vehicles in exchange for China dropping duties on agriculture products. 

“What will make (Trump) upset is those electric vehicles, if Canadians start to buy them and bring them over to the U.S. and sell them there. He doesn’t really want a flood of Chinese EVs going into the U.S.,” he said. 

Dewan said despite the challenges that lie ahead, he’s optimistic overall about the outlook for the domestic economy. In a report earlier this month, he projected gross domestic product to come in at 1.6 per cent this year, supported by the labour market, fiscal stimulus and other factors. 

In November of last year, the federal government unveiled its investment-focused budget, in which Ottawa laid out plans to spur $1 trillion in investment over five years. 

The plan promised generational investments in key projects, including $25 billion for housing, $30 billion for defence and security, $115 billion for major infrastructure and $110 billion to drive productivity and competitiveness over five years. 

“We obviously have a lot of what we classified as nation-building projects, you have spending on defence, infrastructure and housing … So that is going to also lift the economy,” Dewan said. 

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In addition, he said the removal of the consumer carbon price in April 2025 will help economic growth this year. 

“That actually puts more money in people’s pockets. That is essentially stimulative in nature,” Dewan said. 

He said he expects the unemployment rate to decline to around 6.2 per cent by the end of the year. Statistics Canada said in its December jobs report that the jobless rate had risen to 6.8 per cent.

“We think the labour market is going to recover (and) going to heat up a little bit, because of the slowing population growth,” Dewan said. 

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Jan. 21, 2026.