What can premier possibly do for an encore after his historic triumph?

Has Premier Wab Kinew consumed too much of his own Kool-Aid?

Last weekend, Kinew was a welcomed special guest at the NDP’s national leadership convention in downtown Winnipeg. Welcomed because right now, Kinew is the most popular New Democrat in Canada and the federal party — now led by filmmaker Avi Lewis — needs all the help it can get.

However, following a rousing address to the convention, Kinew offered some thoughts on the performance of the government he leads. And in particular, his controversial decision to suspend the provincial 14 cents per litre gasoline tax for all of 2024.

The gas-tax holiday, Kinew told reporters, was “the most important thing that a provincial government ever did in the history of Manitoba, because it gave power back to the middle-class and to the low-income folks.”

There’s a lot to unpack there, and none of it is particularly flattering for the uber-popular Kinew.

First off, Kinew’s much-touted gasoline tax holiday was, objectively speaking, a big deal. It was wildly popular but cost the provincial treasury $340 million in lost revenue over the first full year the Kinew government was in power. Given that the previous Progressive Conservative government left Kinew with a budget deficit of more than $1 billion, giving away that kind of tax revenue was risky at best, foolish at worst.

It doesn’t help Kinew that since he gave away all that tax revenue, his government has been awash in a sea of red ink, finishing the 2025-26 fiscal year with a $1.6-billion deficit.

However, putting aside the balance sheet implications, what can we make of Kinew’s claim that the gas-tax holiday was “the most important” gesture ever made by a Manitoba government, and that it “gave power” back to the middle class and low-income Manitobans?

What quickly comes to mind is the fact that the aforementioned PC government cut taxes way, way deeper than the NDP has since winning the 2023 election.

From increasing the basic personal income tax exemption, to rolling back a one-point increase in the provincial sales tax introduced by former NDP Premier Greg Selinger, and the 50-per-cent rebate on education property taxes, Tory premiers Brian Pallister and Heather Stefanson gutted the treasury while in power.

If a $340-million tax break is the “most important” government initiative ever, then what do we make of the multiple billions of dollars in tax cuts introduced by the Tories?

Unfortunately, the claim of being the “most important” government decision isn’t even the most problematic claim Kinew made. The bigger and more erroneous boast is that somehow the gas-tax holiday helped “middle-class and lower-income” Manitobans the most.

Most direct cuts to taxes do not favour citizens in the lower or middle tax brackets. Whether it’s income, sales or gasoline, a tax reduction provides the greatest assistance to people who have more disposable income and thus, greater opportunity to spend money.

When the Pallister Tories cut the PST, people buying newly constructed homes, boats, cars and other big-ticket consumer goods saw a benefit. Those with less income, who could only dream of boats and new homes, got little or no benefit.

In was the same for the gas tax; the help was greatest for people with the largest vehicles who drove the most. Manitobans who either don’t own a vehicle — a reality for many at the lowest income levels — or drive smaller cars got no help.

There will, obviously, be exceptions. Owner-operator truck drivers who make modest livings probably benefited quite a bit from cheaper gas. So did middle-class income earners who need a vehicle to get to work, or to do their work. Think food-delivery drivers, taxi and ride-booking drivers or people living outside the Perimeter who need to drive into Winnipeg every day.

Unfortunately, whatever benefits those people got were eclipsed by Manitobans who have the income to drive multiple, larger vehicles.

It would be unfair to ask Kinew to apologize, or even express regret for eliminating gasoline taxes for one year. As a political strategy, it was a winner that has, no doubt, contributed to his continued status as the most popular premier in Canada.

But to suggest that it was the most important thing government has done, or that empowered middle- to lower-income Manitobans, is bit irresponsible.

There have been other Manitoba political leaders who could not live up to their own hype. Pallister, for example, was a hyperbole fire hose who constantly spouted claims about his own government’s accomplishments that were utterly false or fallacious, and did nothing to stop his own party from forcing him out of office.

Pallister’s unbridled self-confidence and capacity to embellish his accomplishments went well beyond the normal political rhetoric spouted by a first minister. His capacity for exaggeration and willingness to take credit for things that he simply did not do bordered on the delusional.

Kinew is nowhere near Pallister’s chronic lack of self-awareness. On the other hand, he has certainly earned his place on the list of most-hyperbolic Manitoba premiers of all time.

And that’s a pretty dubious distinction.

dan.lett@freepress.mb.ca