Manitoba gross domestic product growth modest in 2026: Deloitte

A new report by Deloitte has downgraded its projection for Manitoba’s gross domestic product growth in 2026.

The professional services firm predicted in January the province’s GDP will increase 1.4 per cent. Its latest economic outlook, released today, forecasts Manitoba’s real GDP growth at 1.0 per cent.

Manitoba’s modest growth will be supported by public infrastructure spending, such as the new CancerCare centre, according to Deloitte. Construction is scheduled to begin in August.

Improved agri-food export conditions after China’s tariff removals will also contribute to GDP growth.

Dawn Desjardins, chief economist at Deloitte Canada, said the rise in energy prices resulting from the war in the Middle East and uncertainty about the future of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement on trade (scheduled for review in July) are weighing on the keystone province.

“This lack of clarity, I think, is having an impact on Manitoba, just as it is in all other areas of Canada’s economy,” Desjardins said. “It’s difficult for companies and for consumers to navigate when there are so many things that we’re not sure about.”

Deloitte predicts Manitoba’s GDP growth will lag behind Alberta and Saskatchewan, which have forecast GDP increases of 1.7 and 1.9 per cent, respectively.

Higher energy prices will make a difference for those provinces and increase their revenue to some extent, Desjardins said.

The new report forecasts Canada’s GDP will grow 1.2 per cent, a downgrade from Deloitte’s January prediction of 1.5 per cent. The country’s GDP gained 1.7 per cent in 2025.

Clarity on CUSMA will be a key factor for a recovery in business confidence this year, Desjardins writes in the report. Other factors include geopolitical tension, higher energy costs and disrupted supply chains.

“As time goes on, we get greater clarity on these pretty big issues,” Desjardins told the Free Press.

“We think that will be helpful and we will start to see the economy get its feet back under it.”

Deloitte’s latest outlook suggests that Manitoba’s GDP will grow 1.8 per cent in 2027.

aaron.epp@freepress.mb.ca