Oilsands have strong growth potential, but pipeline constraints loom: Enverus

CALGARY – Western Canadian oil production can grow by about one million barrels per day over the next seven years, driven mainly by expansions to existing steam-driven oilsands projects, says a new report from Enverus Intelligence Research. 

But it can take years to plan and build such projects, so producers have a limited ability to take advantage of the surge in global crude oil prices driven by the war in the Middle East, said the report released Tuesday.

West Texas Intermediate crude for June delivery settled at US$89.67 per barrel — off from the US$114 mark it hit earlier in the conflict, but still 34 per cent higher than it was before the war began in late February. 

Enverus says the oilsands have 50 years worth of drilling opportunities that break even below a US$50-per-barrel WTI price.

“Canada’s got just an enormous amount of resource at a time when unconventional supply from the U.S. is starting to reach its peak,” said Trevor Rix, director of research at Enverus. 

“Given the ongoing Iran conflict and the point in time we’re at right now in terms of the U.S. oil industry being more mature, the oilsands is really well positioned to be able to capture more of that market and to provide stability to our allies.”

But Enverus also said at projected growth rates, available pipeline space to move Western Canadian crude to market will be filled up by the early 2030s. That includes recently announced expansions to existing pipeline networks. 

“I don’t think you’re going to see people commit to growth without a concrete plan and a proponent for a pipeline,” said Rix.

The Alberta government is preparing an application to the major projects office for a new bitumen pipeline to the West Coast that would enable greater volumes of oilsands crude to reach Asian markets. The major projects office was set up last year to speed along infrastructure developments deemed in the national interest. 

The provincial government has said it is spearheading the proposal for now because the private sector is reluctant to take on the risk of such a project, with past attempts stymied by prolonged regulatory reviews, court battles and environmental opposition. 

A sweeping energy accord signed late last year between Ottawa and Alberta lays out a path for a new B.C. pipeline to be dubbed a national-interest project. But conditions upon which a new pipeline hinges, including an agreement on the Pathways carbon and storage project, remain unresolved.

Rix said he’s more optimistic about a plan to revive part of the defunct Keystone XL pipeline — pursued by South Bow Corp. alongside Bridger Pipeline LLC — and send more oilsands crude south of the border.  

“Politically, there’s a lot of hurdles to cross” with a West Coast route, he said. 

Meanwhile, Enbridge Inc. is working on increasing throughput on its existing cross-border network. Federally owned Trans Mountain Corp. is also looking to boost the amount of oilsands crude it currently ships to the Vancouver area, mainly for export to Asia.  

This report by The Canadian Press was first published April 21, 2026.

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