Failure to exploit NDP weaknesses leaves PCs in tailspin

Manitoba’s Progressive Conservative party is getting slaughtered.

There’s no other way to put it.

The latest Abacus Data poll is brutal for the Tories. The NDP isn’t merely ahead — it is dominating across virtually every major demographic, geographic and age group.

Instead of closing the gap after nearly three years in opposition, the PCs are watching it get wider.

The NDP’s overall support sits at 60 per cent, its strongest showing in at least a decade. To put that number into perspective, the NDP won just 45 per cent of the popular vote in the 2023 election. In other words, its current support is a remarkable 15 percentage points higher than the vote share that was enough to win government.

The more revealing part, however, is where that support is coming from.

The NDP continues to make significant gains outside Winnipeg, traditionally important territory for the PCs. Its support in rural and northern Manitoba has climbed to 54 per cent, up from 36 per cent in the 2023 election.

Some of that increase has come at the expense of the Liberals, whose support in rural and northern Manitoba has virtually disappeared, falling to two per cent.

But the bigger problem for the Tories is that they’re losing ground, too. Their support in rural and northern Manitoba has fallen to 39 per cent, its lowest level since the 2023 election.

Then there’s Winnipeg.

If the PCs thought things couldn’t get worse after being nearly wiped off the electoral map in the city in 2023, they were wrong.

The NDP now has almost three times the support of the PCs in Winnipeg — something that hasn’t happened in at least a decade, probably longer. NDP support in the city stands at 64 per cent, while Tory support has collapsed to just 22 per cent.

That’s down from 32 per cent for the PCs in the 2023 election.

Considering Manitoba elections are typically won or lost in Winnipeg, that isn’t just a bad number for the Tories, it’s a disaster.

And the problem isn’t confined to the inner city, where the PCs have traditionally struggled. They’re also losing ground in the suburbs, according to the poll.

The regional breakdowns should be treated cautiously because of small sample sizes, but the broader trend is hard to miss: the PCs are struggling to maintain support in the very parts of Winnipeg where they need it most.

Gender and age numbers aren’t any better for the Tories.

The NDP leads by a huge margin among women, 65 per cent to 24 per cent for the PCs. It also leads among men, 53 per cent to 35 per cent.

The NDP also dominates in every age group.

The biggest (and growing) gap is among voters 55 and older, where the NDP has 64 per cent support compared with 26 per cent for the PCs.

That matters because older voters tend to turn out in greater numbers. In the last provincial election, Elections Manitoba reported turnout of 77.6 per cent among voters aged 64 to 75, compared with just 55.9 per cent among those aged 18 to 24.

There’s no mystery why the NDP is benefiting. Premier Wab Kinew remains personally popular, with an approval rating of 68 per cent, and the government continues to enjoy an extended honeymoon.

There’s also a national factor at play.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s attacks on Canada have created something of a political shield around governments across the country. When Canadians feel their country is being threatened, they tend to rally around their own governments. That makes it harder for opposition parties to turn dissatisfaction into political support.

But the PCs can’t blame Trump for all of this.

Their bigger problem is that they haven’t figured out how to make the NDP pay a political price for its shortcomings.

And there are shortcomings.

Emergency room waits are at record highs. The justice system is dealing with serious shortages of Crown attorneys and judges, contributing to court delays and the closure of some rural courtrooms. Homelessness, addictions and mental-health problems seem to be getting worse. And Manitoba’s economic growth trailed the national average in 2025.

The NDP has a record it can defend, too. It has hired more health-care workers and increased spending on hospitals, home care and personal care homes. Some surgical wait times are coming down. Education and municipal funding have increased. And the deficit has been reduced from $1.95 billion in 2023-24 to $832 million in 2025-26.

But that’s precisely the point.

The NDP doesn’t have to be a disaster for the PCs to make gains. Government simply has to be vulnerable. And to a certain extent, the vulnerabilities are there. The PCs just can’t seem to capitalize on them.

tom.brodbeck@freepress.mb.ca