Isaias strengthens into the first hurricane of the Atlantic season

Isaias strengthened into the first hurricane of the Atlantic season late Wednesday as it surged towards the U.S. Gulf Coast, the National Hurricane Center said.

Forecasters warned that it was on track to make landfall between the Mississippi coast and the Florida Panhandle late Friday or early Saturday and was expected to bring heavy rains and potentially flash flooding.

The center of the cyclone was about 460 miles (745 kilometers) south-southwest of the Mississippi River, with maximum sustained winds around 75 mph (120 kph), according to an advisory from the Miami-based hurricane center. It was moving east-northeast at 9 mph (15 kph). 

The hurricane formed late in the season

Isaias is developing more than four months into the Atlantic hurricane season, nearly tying a 121-year-old record for the area’s latest-forming hurricane. According to the National Weather Service, the record dates to 1905, when the year’s first Atlantic hurricane formed on Oct. 8.

The Atlantic hurricane season has been unusually quiet this year because of a strong El Niño, which disrupts storm formation over that ocean. Storm activity has been above average in the Pacific, where Tropical Storm Simon formed Wednesday off Mexico. 

After Isaias (pronounced ees-ah-EE’-ahs, according to the hurricane center) became a tropical storm Wednesday in the warm waters off eastern Mexico, communities in its potential path worked quickly to prepare. Some Gulf oil wells paused production while governors in Florida and Alabama declared a state of emergency for dozens of counties.

Isaias is expected to strike along a wide swath of coastline that’s very familiar with major hurricanes.

One of the 20th century’s worst storms, Hurricane Camille, killed more than 250 people after hitting land near Waveland, Mississippi, in 1969. Hurricane Katrina in 2005 razed neighborhoods in Mississippi, flooded New Orleans and killed nearly 1,400 people. And Hurricane Michael leveled homes and buildings near Panama City, Florida, in 2018.

Oil production and tourism already affected

Ahead of the storm, oil and gas producers shut down a significant share of offshore production in the Gulf, which accounts for almost 15% of crude pumped annually in the U.S.

As of Wednesday about 25% of the oil production in the region was temporarily halted, taking about 511,000 barrels a day off the market, according to the Marine Minerals Administration. It said eight of the Gulf’s 371 manned oil platforms were evacuated.

With oil prices already high, the production cuts are steep enough to affect markets, though other Gulf hurricanes have caused larger disruptions, said Jim Burkhard, global head of crude oil market research for S&P Global Energy. More concerning, he said, is whether Isaias strikes as a powerful storm near refineries.

“I would characterize the oil market risk as moderate, but rising,” Burkhard said in an email.

In Gulf Shores, Alabama, organizers canceled the National Shrimp Festival, which had been scheduled for Thursday through the weekend. The event drew an estimated 325,000 people last year. Gulf Shores and Orange Beach issued a statement encouraging people in low-lying areas to voluntarily evacuate.

Gulf Shores resident Maranie Adams gathered water and other supplies as her family moved belongings, including a hot tub motor, to higher ground.

Adams said she, her husband and two adult sons planned to ride out the storm at home, roughly a half-mile from shore, sheltering indoors alongside their flock of chickens.

“We’re having to get crates to bring them into the house so they don’t blow away,” Adams said. “It’s going to be noisy.”

Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey issued a state of emergency for 40 counties, saying on the social platform X that, “While I hope for minimal impacts, we must take preparations seriously.”

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis declared one for 25 counties in the Panhandle and Big Bend regions. The declaration activates the state’s emergency management plan for hurricanes, allowing officials to deploy disaster responders and equipment. The state also planned to deploy a Miami-based urban search and rescue task force.

In Pensacola, electric utilities were pre-positioning crews to quickly repair any power outages. City officials provided sand for residents to fill sandbags to protect their homes against flooding. And Mayor D.C. Reeves urged people to check on older adult neighbors and others who might need help.

“Obviously no need to panic at this point,” Reeves told a news conference. “This is really about preparation.”

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This story was updated to correct that Isaias was one day short of tying the record for the area’s latest-forming hurricane, it didn’t tie it.

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Rico reported from Atlanta, and Collins from Hartford, Connecticut. Associated Press journalists Russ Bynum in Savannah, Georgia, Julie Walker in New York and Hallie Golden in Seattle contributed to this report.