‘And the Oscar goes to…’

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This article was published 27/02/2016 (3502 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Let’s face it. In the unlikely case the 2016 edition of the Academy Awards attracts a big audience, it will be because people are eager to see how Chris Rock negotiates hosting duties in the midst of the #OscarsSoWhite controversy.

It’s a bit ironic that a year in which people have less reason than usual to care about the Oscars is also a year where it’s relatively difficult to pick winners.

But Winnipeg Free Press arts writers Alison Gillmor and Randall King soldier on with their own predictions on five key categories in anticipation of Sunday night’s broadcast.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

Christian Bale, The Big Short; Tom Hardy, The Revenant; Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight; Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies; Sylvester Stallone, Creed.

AG: Hardy is always interesting, but his work in The Revenant doesn’t seem to be getting much awards-season traction. Could he be overshadowed by that raw-bison-liver-eating Leo?

RK: Or maybe this is kind of a consolation nomination. Hardy’s a fascinating actor, but the Academy couldn’t bring themselves to acknowledge his work as the gangster Kray twins in Legend, so this seemed a palatable compromise.

AG: Stage actor Rylance is just terrific as Bridge of Spies’ KGB agent, handing in a precise and wryly funny performance. However, he might be too much of a Hollywood outsider.

RK: Let’s not forget his uncredited role in Guy Maddin’s Twilight of the Ice Nymphs, as much as Rylance evidently wanted to put that behind him.

AG: Spotlight is a genuine ensemble piece, so when I see Ruffalo’s name, I’m thinking why not Michael Keaton? Or Liev Schreiber? Ditto for Bale in The Big Short, though I liked his offbeat tics.

RK: I think Bale broke out of that particular ensemble with his performance, which, for me, stands apart from the crowd in the same way his character was a true outlier.

AG: Stallone’s nomination for Creed — when neither writer-director Ryan Coogler nor star Michael B. Jordan got nods — is tricky in this #OscarsSoWhite year. He is really good, though: his “Rocky with reading glasses” performance yields a moving poignancy that he never quite found in 2006’s Rocky Balboa.

WILL WIN:

AG: Sentimental fave Stallone

RK: Agreed, though the presentation will carry a whiff of career-achievement award.

SHOULD WIN:

AG: Rylance was my favourite performance of the year.

RK: I’d actually go with the less subtle Bale. But to some extent, the Oscars are a popularity contest and for that reason, I don’t like his chances.

BEST SUPPORTING

ACTRESS:

Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight; Rachel McAdams, Spotlight; Rooney Mara, Carol; Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl; Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs.

AG: Leigh always goes all in — and, wow, is she committed to her gruelling role in Quentin Tarantino’s anti-western — but there’s not much Oscar momentum for The Hateful Eight.

RK: I think she might have had a better shot if the film had been more well-liked. Leigh has always been such a ballsy actress, and her work in this movie proves she’s still got it.

AG: The low likability factor also applies to Steve Jobs, in which Winslet ably plays the tech guru’s exasperated right-hand woman. McAdams, on the other hand, is in a well-regarded movie, but her part is too minor to garner attention.

RK: I think the real contest will be between the last two nominees.

AG: I agree. Mara’s fine, quiet work as the young shop girl in Carol really constitutes a leading role, as does Vikander’s performance in The Danish Girl. But Vikander is having a much-talked-about all-round great year, not just with The Danish Girl but with Ex Machina and buzz on upcoming projects.

WILL WIN:

AG: Vikander.

RK: Mara might break through here on the strength of her formidable screen presence.

SHOULD WIN:

AG: Awarding Mara would be a meaningful way to honour an overlooked film.

RK: Leigh, just for being so badass.

 

BEST ACTOR:

Bryan Cranston, Trumbo; Matt Damon, The Martian; Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant; Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs; Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl.

AG: Cranston was wily and peppery as blacklisted screenwriter Dalton Trumbo, but the biopic was uneven, a problem that also plagues Fassbender in Steve Jobs.

RK: That’s true and I believe that tends to reduce a nominee’s chances, unless the acting work is truly extraordinary. That also applies to Redmayne.

AG: Redmayne delivers a strong performance as a pioneering transsexual woman in The Danish Girl, but he got his transformative true-life Oscar last year with The Theory of Everything. Matt Damon is immensely likable in The Martian, but does likable bring home Oscar gold?

RK: Nope, at least not since Bing Crosby won for Going My Way. Suffering torment is the way to go.

AG: That’s why this looks to be the year for DiCaprio. For The Revenant, he ate raw bison liver, he got hypothermia, he waded through icy rivers. His performance carries the marks of serious authenticity: there’s frozen snot and spittle and blood and bear attacks and incoherent grunting.

RK: Speaking of suffering, he’s been nominated four times but has never won.

AG: I think DiCaprio’s a dead cert, and the only thing that could undo him would be Hollywood’s discomfort with his naked need to win. There’s actually an online video game called Leo’s Red Carpet Rampage, where his little avatar accumulates Golden Globe power points and battles Eddie Redmayne.

WILL WIN:

AG: DiCaprio.

RK: DiCaprio.

SHOULD WIN:

AG: I wish there were a really defining performance to put up against DiCaprio’s Revenant work, which seems so gratuitously, physically brutal in a totally Oscar-baiting way. But I don’t think there is. Man, I wish the kid from Room had gotten a nom.

RK: I think Leo’s paid his dues. Anyway, if onscreen masochism were the path to acting Oscars, Mel Gibson’s shelves would be groaning under the accumulated weight.

 

BEST ACTRESS:

Cate Blanchett, Carol; Brie Larson, Room; Jennifer Lawrence, Joy; Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years; Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn.

AG: Lawrence is the best thing in the uneven Joy, but the four-time nominee might be tipping toward overexposure this year. And please, David O. Russell, could you stop casting the 25-year-old Lawrence as 30- and 40-something characters when actual mid-career actresses are out of work?

RK: Agreed. As likable as she is, some degree of Lawrence fatigue is in the air. That may also hold true for Oscar regular Blanchett, who goes old-school in her acting approach in Carol.

AG: Blanchett can be a bit mannered, but I think her approach really works in Carol: As an upper-class 1950s wife in the throes of a gay love affair, her whole life is a performance. Still, why is Blanchett getting a Best Actress nom when her co-star Mara is relegated to the supporting category? This strategy could backfire.

RK: Consider the Pacino Godfather Effect. Al Pacino, the true star of The Godfather, was nominated in the supporting actor category and lost. But Marlon Brando won best actor. That might actually boost Blanchett’s chances.

AG: The 70-year-old Rampling is nominated for her astonishing work in 45 Years, but Oscar-grabbing elder roles are often described as “feisty.” Rampling is flinty, not feisty.

RK: Right. She’s too real.

AG: At the other end of the age spectrum, Ronan is this year’s ingenue, and the Academy does love its ingenues. As a young Irish immigrant in Brooklyn, the 21-year-old delivers a performance that’s both tender and tough-minded. Ronan could still be a spoiler.

RK: But I think we both know this should be a sure thing for Larson for Room.

AG: Yes, ultimately I think Larson will get this win. To prepare for her role as Room’s imprisoned mother, Larson isolated herself, ate a restricted diet, avoided the sun and acquired a convincing vitamin D-deprived pallor. Her character’s survival story is as harrowing as The Revenant’s, but Larson never makes a thespian meal of it, handling intense material with low-key naturalism.

WILL WIN:

AG: Larson.

RK: Agreed, Larson.

SHOULD WIN:

AG: Larson

RK: Ditto

 

BEST PICTURE:

The nominees are: The Big Short, Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, The Revenant, Room and Spotlight.

AG: The Revenant is a brutal, beautiful, viscerally powerful survival saga, as DiCaprio drags himself through the 1820s frontier bent on revenge, but I don’t know whether it’s carrying all the moral weight it thinks it’s carrying. It’s either a profound statement or art-house torture porn. I’d have to see it again — and I’m still recovering from the first time.

RK: That’s little harsh. I think it’s an honest attempt at a kind of immersive survival story of the wilderness where other people are just as treacherous as the elements.

AG: The Martian is also a survival story, but one that’s co-operative and can-do and upbeat, with all these super-smart people working to rescue Damon’s stranded astronaut. All those peppy qualities will probably count against it, though.

RK: At times, you can’t believe this was a film from the guy who gave us Alien, Ridley Scott. The Martian was light to that movie’s darkness. The movie history books won’t include either as best picture winners, I’m thinking.

AG: There are some category problems with the female-centred dramas. For me, Brooklyn is about dislocation and deep, sad wells of Irish silence, but I think this immigrant story has been misunderstood — and underestimated — as a nice little love story. Room, about a young woman held captive with her child in a 100-square-foot shed, actually IS a love story, about the bond between mother and child, but I think some voters are worried the film could be seen as exploitational.

RK: The premise alone might have prevented a lot of voters from giving Room a fair shot. That may also explain why the kid, Jacob Tremblay, didn’t get a deserved acting nomination.

AG: Bridge of Spies, the Cold War espionage drama, is really solid and unshowy, but voters will probably find it solid and unshowy to the point they’ll take it for granted. Mad Max: Fury Road, on the other hand, just roared in with its flame-throwing electric guitar from summer action blockbuster territory. It’s fabulous to see such a deranged genre pic on the Oscar roster, but I don’t think Academy voters will go for it.

RK: Both those films were on my Top 10 list, but I think you’re right. Fury Road was especially notable given that action genre blockbusters never get this kind of acknowledgement.

AG: Spotlight and The Big Short are both procedurals. The Big Short explains the 2008 financial crisis, in a really funny, exhilarating way, while Spotlight slowly, subtly reveals how a team of journalists broke the clergy-abuse story in Boston. I was worried the Academy might feel these two films are too wonkish, too insider, but there seems to be some support for The Big Short and a lot of support for Spotlight.

RK: I’d call it a three-way race. The Directors Guild gave their big award to The Revenant. Spotlight won the best ensemble award from the Screen Actors Guild. And The Big Short won the Producers Guild prize. Those three are the short list.

WILL WIN:

AG: Spotlight. And I hope this isn’t just a journalist being swayed by wishful thinking.

RK: The Revenant. The Academy will be swayed by flashy, bravura filmmaking over solid storytelling.

SHOULD WIN:

RK: Mad Max: Fury Road. This is my personal prejudice. I ask myself: Which of these films do I really want to see again?

AG: Spotlight. I like the film’s balanced ensemble cast, self-effacing direction and complete lack of vanity. It doesn’t have that “look at me, look at me” quality seen in so many Best Picture winners, which is exactly why it would be awesome if it did win.

alison.gillmor@freepress.mb.carandall.king@freepress.mb.ca