Conclave’s cardinals could vote for change

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This article was published 06/05/2025 (517 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

What’s really going to happen as the conclave begins Wednesday in Vatican City to decide the next pope of the Roman Catholic Church?

Nobody knows for sure, of course. But Hendro Munsterman, a veteran Vatican correspondent for Nederlands Dagblad, a Christian newspaper in The Netherlands, has some inside information.

I met Munsterman last October at the Vatican press office when I was in Rome to cover the Roman Catholic Church’s Synod on Synodality.

In his conversations with cardinals who will vote to select the next leader to represent 1.4 billion Catholics around the world, he has heard nothing but support for Pope Francis, who died April 21 at age 88.

“They all appreciate how he took the church to the margins, how he sought to serve the poor and the ‘least of these,’” Munsterman said. “Nobody is challenging that.”

Privately, some suggested Francis went too fast with his reforms, especially in his efforts to involve the laity in making decisions about the church.

“Not everyone in leadership in the church accepted Francis’ synodal process,” Munsterman said, suggesting the younger cardinals were more on board than some of the older ones.

“There is a clear generational difference,” he said.

For some cardinals, there is a fear that Francis gave too much power to lay people, and also to women — he appointed some women to top positions in the Vatican that had previously been reserved only for men.

Those cardinals fear that through his changes, Francis undermined the authority of cardinals, bishops and priests.

“The question is, how big is this group?” said Munsterman, noting that could play a role in determining the next pope.

What they decide could slow down or stall the reforms Francis started, he added.

Another issue that may come up in the conclave is doctrine, based on what Munsterman said he hears from cardinals.

“Some are saying Pope Francis raised a lot of doubts,” he said. “Is homosexuality good or bad? What about divorce? Some want to go back to the doctrinal certainties of Pope Benedict XVI and John Paul II.”

Where the 2013 conclave produced Francis, a pope who brought changes to the church, some cardinals say change is needed again — to the way things were.

Munsterman said this conclave could end up like the one that followed the death of Pope John XXIII, who created the Second Vatican Council that produced significant change and modernization in the church.

After he died in 1963, his successor, Paul VI, continued the council’s reforms but slowed down.

“They could elect someone who wants to continue what Francis did, but in a more moderate way,” Munsterman said. “Something that will keep the old guard on board, but not close the windows Francis opened.”

As for who that new pope might be, that’s anyone’s guess.

One thing he is certain of is no Canadian is on the list.

This includes Canadian cardinal Michael Czerny.

“He’s a Jesuit, and after having a Jesuit as pope in Francis, the cardinals will not want another one,” Munsterman said.

Gérald Lacroix of Quebec is also not a contender, due to the sexual abuse charges that were levelled against him — even though he was cleared by the Church.

A dark horse candidate for Munsterman is Robert Prevost. The American cardinal holds top positions in the Vatican as prefect of the Dicastery for Bishops and president of the Pontifical Commission for Latin America.

Prevost is a moderate, spent time among poor people in Peru, is a good administrator (that was not one of Francis’ gifts, Munsterman said) and, importantly, could have the ear of U.S. President Donald Trump.

“He is the least American of the American cardinals,” he said.

Munsterman believes a new pope will be chosen before Sunday.

“The Cardinals won’t want to go past the weekend. They will want to have a new pope to meet the faithful in St. Peter’s Square by Sunday.”

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