Paper outlines the three stages of global religious decline

There is no doubt that organized religion is in decline in Canada, but what caused the decline? A new paper titled “The three stages of religious decline around the world” suggests some answers.

The paper, written by scholars Jörg Stolz, Nan Dirk de Graaf, Conrad Hackett and Jean-Philippe Antonietti, was published in the journal Nature Communications. Using data from the Pew Research Centre, the World Values Survey and the European Values Study, the authors propose that drops in religious affiliation happen through what they call a “secular transition” process.

According to the model, religion starts strong in most societies, being central to identity, community, law, morality and meaning. As societies modernize and urbanize, and people become more educated, reliance on religious authority decreases.

Generational change also drives the shift; each generation tends to be less religious than the previous one as young people grow up with more individual choice about religion and less cultural pressure to participate in it. And religious pluralism plays a role, too. As societies diversify, no single faith dominates and religion is seen as more of a personal choice.

According to the authors, the transition from religious to less religious happens no matter what major religion is dominant in a country — Christian, Muslim, Hindu or Buddhist. And the decline happens in three stages.

In the first stage, people let go of aspects of religion that require more time and resources — things such as attending services. Next, they shed beliefs, partly because they are no longer being reinforced (or policed) in religious settings.

The last thing to go is identity. People may not attend services or even believe in religious doctrines anymore, but they still call themselves Christians, Muslims, Jews, Hindus or Buddhist. The authors suggest religious identity hangs on longer since it isn’t burdensome; it doesn’t require anything in the way of time, devotion or resources.

The first clue a secular transition is happening is when younger generations stop participating in religious services as frequently as older generations do — something that is certainly true for many religious groups in Canada.

In the next stage, belonging to a religious group is seen as less important. That is also happening in Canada, with over 34 per cent of the population, mainly younger people, saying they are “nones,” or not affiliated with any religious group.

In the last stage, all that is left is the idea of being generically religious — a cultural or historical marker. Quebec is an excellent example of this in Canada. Many countries in Europe have also reached this stage, the authors contend.

The authors note this secular transition model doesn’t predict the death of religion; it never goes away. But, over time, societies just become less religious.

The authors acknowledge some countries don’t fit their transition model. This includes eastern European post-communist countries with Orthodox or Muslim majorities, such as Russia, Azerbaijan, Moldova and Georgia. This could be because communist regimes in those countries suppressed religion for decades; part of their transition out of communism includes a revival of traditional religious belief.

Another exception is Israel, which has a large population of secular Jews. But it also has a large number of younger Israelis who are Orthodox and ultra-Orthodox Jews. As a result, younger Israelis rank similar to their elders on measures of religiosity such as attendance at services and belief in religious doctrines.

What does this mean for Canada? The authors consider it to be in the middle-to-late stages of the transition process. Participation is low; it started to wane in the 1960s and less than 10 per cent of Canadians attend religious services today.

The one factor that could influence the process is immigration. Since many immigrants tend to be more religious, an influx could keep some minority religions such as Islam going stronger for longer, but even there, research and experience show that Muslim youth born in Canada will tend to be less religious than their parents.

Overall, Canada is not as far along the secular transition track as Europe, but it is much further along than the U.S. or many countries in the Global South. And over the next one or two generations, this trend will only strengthen as the children of today’s “cultural Christians” grow up with little direct religious exposure.

By 2050, it is suggested that Canada could be like Scandinavia, a place where religion is seen as heritage by most people — but not something that is practiced.

What does this mean for Canadian religious leaders? They will have to figure out the role of religion in a country where it is increasingly irrelevant to most people.

As for Canadian society at large, it has some soul-searching to do, too. Studies consistently show that religiosity is correlated with higher levels of charitable giving and volunteering. And numerous studies show that youth who are involved in religious groups are less likely to engage in delinquent behaviour such as theft, vandalism or violent crime, and less likely to abuse alcohol or drugs.

In other words, these are important questions for religious leaders, politicians and anyone who cares about life in Canada to consider.

Find the study at pewresearch.org.

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