Planck-scale physics and the economy

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 21/01/2017 (3252 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

The economy has been sputtering for years; it sure could use a boost. Planck-scale physics is the coming thing in basic science. How big a boost could the economy get from Planck-scale physics? A new answer to this question may surprise you.

New deep ideas are the ultimate drivers of the economy. The deep idea the universe is made of tiny quanta of space and of the relationships between them lies at the root of Planck-scale physics. Planck scale is as much smaller than an atom as an atom is our galaxy — and then by another factor of a million. It’s widely accepted there is nothing smaller than Planck scale, so this may be the deepest idea ever.

The last long economic boom came from quantum theory. At its heart lay an idea about looking into the inner works of atoms. Electrons inside atoms don’t behave like ordinary things we see. Indeed, the key idea was we cannot know some physical facts. It came to be called the Heisenberg uncertainty principle.

Quantum theory leads to absurd predictions. But observations almost always confirm them. The strange physics came with its own math that matched measurements to nine-digit accuracy. This led to quantum-research supervisors telling physics students who asked how it works to ‘shut up and calculate.’ Quantum theory is a rather fuzzy idea when you think about it (if you do).

Nonetheless, it does deliver for us. Today, quantum theory drives a large part of the world’s economic activity and products. For example, most modern manufacturing is designed, driven, controlled and sold by applications of quantum theory. Without it, we would no doubt have better than a horse-and-buggy world, but we would be much poorer.

Economists have long known the world’s economy does not proceed smoothly. Records show it has quarter-century-long booms between often-even-longer busts. A boom is driven by the fruits — a burst of consequent ideas and then of innovations and inventions — of a single deep idea or, less often, two ideas.

It can take decades for a deep idea to give rise to visible results. Right now, we’re looking from the inside of a bust. But the deep idea behind Planck-scale physics has been incubating for some time. If it gets its fair share of attention — which right now it doesn’t — it could soon be ripe for economic consequences.

Now retired, British economist Alan Freeman has written a new paper about these matters: A Penny for Your Thoughts: A Note on the Impact of Ideas. He estimates how big a boom the cascade of innovation from Planck-scale physics could provide. He bases his estimate on a current projection of what happened previously. He foresees a 25-or-more-year boost of 50 to 100 per cent to the world economy, which he sets (perhaps conservatively) at US$80 trillion per year.

From his figures we can calculate a simplified order of magnitude for the likely boost to the economy from Planck-scale physics. It works out at about one quadrillion U.S. dollars.

With measured sarcasm, former U.S. senator Everett Dirksen once said, ‘A billion here, a billion there, pretty soon you’re talking about real money.’ A quadrillion is a million billion. Real money indeed!

The obvious question is: who is working to move this boost along? The less obvious answer is: hardly anybody. You can do yourself and the next generation a big favour by asking your nearest politician what they intend to do about this. Don’t be surprised if they have not yet heard of Planck-scale physics. You could send them a link to Freeman’s paper. 

The few minutes it takes could be by far the best investment you will ever make.

Colin Gillespie is a physicist and author whose most recent book is Time One: Discover How the Universe Began. He writes a weekly blog Science Seen.