Constellation Software unsure if AI is a renaissance or recession for programming

TORONTO – The president of Constellation Software Inc. says it’s proving difficult to determine whether artificial intelligence is causing “a renaissance or a recession” in programming.

Mark Leonard, the reclusive leader of the Toronto-based software developer, said Monday that it’s possible AI will lead to a surge in demand for programmers, if the technology improves their efficiency tenfold and allows for more customizable software to be created.

“You can imagine not having to put up with software that does 80 per cent of what you want. You’ll be able to get software that does 100 per cent of what you want, that’s customized to your needs,” he said on a call with analysts. 

“What a wonderful outcome that would be.”

But on the other hand, Leonard said a tenfold increase in productivity may trigger a massive oversupply of programmers, especially if demand for their services remains static.

The efficiency could also introduce new problems to the programming process.

“It’s really easy to get excited about 10x improvements in programmer productivity as you generate that new application, but if that new application goes out into the field and generates scads of bugs reported by clients and is fundamentally difficult to change and improve, you may give up,” Leonard said. 

In that scenario, he thinks the efficiency of the technology will drop while companies could end up with higher lifetime costs for their code.

Leonard feels it’s hard to determine which scenario — a renaissance or a recession — is more likely because the state of AI is changing rapidly and no one has a real sense of what it will be capable of a year from now.

“I think we’re very early days,” he said. “We know there are some wonderful advances in programmer efficiency on the front end, and we just don’t know the answers on the back end yet because we haven’t lived with it for long enough.”

Because of the range of possibilities, Constellation Software is monitoring the situation closely, Leonard said.

His remarks come as Constellation’s share price has been sliding since the spring as investors worry about whether AI will make the work the company does more affordable for and replicable by competitors.

The company’s share price hovered around a recent high of $5,300 in May but traded at roughly $4,378 as Leonard spoke Monday morning. 

His company has a decentralized management model, where six subsidiaries each oversee wide-ranging portfolios. The portfolios include tools for libraries, spas, dealerships and resorts, along with software for sectors including agriculture, retail, energy, real estate and health care.

While all of them could be impacted by AI, Leonard said it’s important to approach the technology and claims people make around it with “healthy skepticism.”

In the last few weeks alone, he heard a major soft drink company increased its sales by seven to eight per cent because of AI, but when he looked at its stock, it had fallen.

That’s why he encouraged listeners on his Monday call to “be a scientist instead of an anthropologist.”

“Actually run experiments, try AI and ideally, try it against the alternative and see if you get significant improvements in whatever it is that you’re endeavouring to do,” he said. 

“Predicting the future (is) really, really hard, particularly at times like these, but monitoring what’s happening in real time is a whole lot easier.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 22, 2025.

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