Heavy rainfall expected to add to flooding woes

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This article was published 20/03/2009 (6356 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

A major deluge of rain is on its way to the Red River Valley to compound a growing flood crisis.

"It’s a pretty serious potential situation," warning-preparedness meteorologist Dave Carlsen said Thursday.

The Environment Canada weather specialist said two separate storm systems could hit the Red River Valley — overnight Sunday and into Monday, then again on Tuesday — dumping as much as 25 millimetres of rain. That’s equivalent to 25 centimetres of snow.

Just what we need.

"It’s going to drop a lot on the Red River Valley," Carlsen said.

The province will issue its latest flood forecast today.

Steven Topping, head of Infrastructure and Operations Division at Water Stewardship, said Thursday the province will not speculate about the impact of so much rain until it sees how much actually falls, and where.

"We would need to know the distribution of this rainfall," Topping said.

"We’ll be looking at reassessing the Red River flood outlook after this weekend."

But there has already been plenty of bad news about flooding.

Officials have said the valley can expect a flood of 1979 and 1950 proportions, second only to the floods of 1997, 1826 and 1852.

The provincial government has said some Manitoba communities will probably be evacuated. Ring dikes will be closed and water will cover roads and considerable farmland this spring. Officials are confident Winnipeg can withstand a major flood, primarily because of the expanded floodway. The U.S. National Weather service is predicting record flooding south of the border.

Carlsen said the first rainstorm could hit anywhere from Thompson down to parts of South Dakota.

"I’d call it a modified Colorado low," primarily heavy rain, said Carlsen, who explained a regular Colorado low would go from snow, to freezing rain, to rain, and back to snow.

"There’s a fairly strong storm system going to set up on the northern plains Sunday," Carlsen said. "A wild card — there’s likely to be some thunderstorms. With thunderstorms, there could be even more rain in the valley."

Carlsen said Winnipeg gets one March thunderstorm every two years or so.

The second storm will arrive Tuesday, but it’s still uncertain how wide an area that could hit — southern Manitoba, the Dakotas, maybe southern Saskatchewan, Carlsen said.

Meanwhile, city police are reminding Winnipeggers to stay off rivers and ponds, because warm temperatures have made conditions extremely dangerous.

nick.martin@freepress.mb.ca