Stats point the way in debate over Pierce’s long-term worth

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This article was published 22/07/2012 (4825 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Welcome to the latest Winnipeg Blue Bombers starting quarterback debate, numbers edition.

Buck Pierce’s current injury, torn ligaments in his left foot, is expected to sideline him for at least a month and many are wondering if either of the two backups — Alex Brink and Joey Elliott — are ready to take over the offence permanently.

Some are growing tired with the lack of consistency of Pierce and his health. When he gets back, they wonder, should he get his job back? Maybe it’s time to set off in a new direction?

Despite the 9-of-34 for 185 yards and two-interception performance in the loss to Toronto last week, Brink will get his second start in a row when the Bombers host Edmonton Thursday night.

What about Elliott, other opinions scream. Isn’t it time for his shot?

Supporters take up emotional positions when the names come up, and they can’t help but bring their personal feelings into play when defending their guy. Immeasurable qualities — such as leadership, competitiveness and the ever-popular intangibles — are stated so matter-of-factly that they take on bizarre, absolute meanings, despite not having any measure of quality or quantity to them at all.

Take this human element out of the equation.

What do the cold, hard stats say about each player? With the generous help of CFL statistician Steve Daniel, let’s examine how the three QBs have fared in Winnipeg and how they stack up against one another.

First, a few notes to consider:

— In the categories of moving the offence and scoring and turnovers, Pierce’s numbers are only for the 2011-12 seasons (unexpected time constraints limited exploration into the 2010 season). Regardless, Pierce’s sample size remains the largest of the three QBs.

— Further to those categories, we wanted to look at how the Bombers team performed under the guidance of the quarterback. For example, turnovers would include ALL giveaways on offence, including other-player fumbles while that QB was in the game.

— Pierce played with the Lions for five seasons, but we won’t reference his B.C. numbers. Winnipeg only. Brink’s and Elliott’s sample size spans over the two-plus years (2010-12) with the Bombers.

— Fourth-string quarterback Justin Goltz is not included in this little exercise, as he’s only thrown six passes in three seasons.

Total games, etc.

Pierce — 24 starts; forced from nine of those games; 10-8 as the quarterback of record* (see below); missed 16 games with injury, though most of those came in 2010 (13 games).

Brink — four starts; 1-7 as the QB of record; has thrown a pass in 18 games; he’s the short-yardage QB for the club.

Elliott — two starts and five appearances; 0-2 as the QB of record; missed 15 games with a torn ACL (2011)

*Note — The ‘quarterback of record’ is the pivot who has the biggest impact on the outcome of the game. Daniel said the CFL doesn’t keep an official ‘quarterback of record’ stat; they only designate wins and loses to the starting QB. Winnipeg has been a QB turnstile since 2010, though, so current league methodology requires a slight tweak here.

Passing

Pierce — 365-of-571 for 4,755 yards; 63.9 per cent completion rate; 21 TDs; 24 INT; 84.5 QB efficiency rating.

Brink — 138-of-262 for 1,591 yards; 52.7 per cent completion rate; 7 TDs; 9 INT; 65.9 QB efficiency rating.

Elliott — 56-of-109 for 715 yards; 51.4 per cent completion rate; 3 TDs; 4 INT; 66.1 QB efficiency rating.

Number-cruncher — Pierce’s accuracy sets him apart here, though his completion rate has dropped every year in Winnipeg… Over half of Elliott’s attempts came during his rookie season… Brink has completed 41.5 per cent of his passes in 2012 (82 attempts).

 

Rushing

Pierce — 81 carries for 602 yards; 7.4 yards per carry average; 4 TDs; 6 fumbles.

Brink — 76 carries for 267 yards; 3.5 yards per carry average; 9 TDs; 6 fumbles.

Elliott — 11 carries for 74 yards; 6.7 yards per carry average; 0 TDs; 0 fumbles.

Number-cruncher — Brink has carried the ball in short-yardage situations 41 times for 56 yards. Take those out of his totals, and his average lifts to six yards a carry… Pierce was getting five yards per carry in 2012 before he went down.

Moving the offence

Pierce (2011-12) — 246 possessions; average gain on 1st down: 6.2 yards; average gain on 2nd down: 5.9 yards; percentage of ‘big plays’ per possession: 15.4; punts: 125; two-and-outs: 106; sacks against: 45.

Brink — 113 possessions; average gain on 1st down: 5.8 yards; average gain on 2nd down: 5.0 yards; percentage of ‘big plays’ per possession: 12.4; punts: 52; two-and-outs: 47; sacks against: 13

Elliott — 52 possessions; average gain on 1st down: 7.6 yards; average gain on 2nd down: 4.4 yards; percentage of ‘big plays’ per possession: 15.4; punts: 24; two-and-outs: 24; sacks against: 6

Number-cruncher — ‘Big plays’ are defined as team rushes over 20 yards and passes over 30 yards… Nearly half of Elliott’s possessions (46 per cent) have resulted in a two-and-out… Pierce takes a sack every sixth possession; the other two every ninth possession… Brink’s numbers suggest a more conservative Bombers offence under his watch.

Scoring and turnovers

Pierce (2011-12) — Percentage of TD drives per possession: 11; red-zone chances: 36; TDs in the red zone: 17; red-zone TD percentage: 47; turnovers: 30; turnover percentage per possession: 12.

Brink — Percentage of TD drives per possession: 12; red-zone chances: 14; TDs in the red zone: 9; red-zone TD percentage: 64; turnovers: 21; turnover percentage per possession: 19.

Elliott — Percentage of TD drives per possession: 8; red-zone chances: 8; TDs in the red zone: 1; red-zone TD percentage: 13; turnovers: 10; turnover percentage per possession: 19.

Number-cruncher — Winnipeg’s red-zone TD frequency was 55 per cent in 2011. That was good for third in the league… Under Pierce in 2011-12, the Bombers have turned the ball over or gone two and out 55 per cent of the time. Compare that to Brink (60) and Elliott (65)… Brink’s red-zone success is skewed due to his short-yardage responsibilities at the goal line… Elliott has struggled in the red zone, converting just 1-of-8 chances for a major.

Final thought

The repeated message from the Bombers is Pierce, despite managing just three wins in his last 11 starts, gives the club the best chance for victory. Statistically, when compared against the other two QBs, that notion looks accurate. It’s not that Pierce is far and away statistically better than Brink and Elliott, it’s just at this juncture — with the latter two still getting their feet wet in the CFL — he remains ahead of their curve. But treading water doesn’t seem to be an option anymore. As another Pierce injury settles in, the question the Bombers have to ask themselves is this: Are we getting any further ahead with Pierce as our quarterback, or is it time to take the training wheels off one of the other guys?

adam.wazny@freepress.mb.ca Twitter: @wazoowazny