Divide & conquer: Unprecedented leadership challenge has split the NDP into three camps. A winner, possibly a new premier, will emerge on Sunday

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This article was published 07/03/2015 (3941 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Premier Greg Selinger is about to make history, win or lose, Sunday at the NDP leadership convention.

If he wins, he will have survived an unprecedented challenge to a sitting Manitoba premier with a comfortable majority of seats in the legislature — although the road ahead to a general election in April 2016 will be filled with potholes.

If he loses, he will have been tossed onto the political scrap heap just 3 1/2 years after winning an unprecedented majority for his party. And the humiliating defeat will have come at the hands of New Democrats, not the enemy Conservatives.

The stakes are just about as high for one of his two challengers, Theresa Oswald.

Win, and she will become Manitoba’s first female premier, and — if she is correct — give the NDP its best shot at winning re-election next year.

Lose, and her political career may be over. And it will have come at her own doing — hers and that of four other former cabinet ministers who shocked the Manitoba political world when they publicly aired their concerns about Selinger’s leadership last fall, precipitating this weekend’s events.

Then there’s Steve Ashton, the longest-serving member of the Manitoba legislature, who is taking his second — and potentially last — run at the NDP leadership. In 2009, he was runner-up to Selinger (1,317 to 685) in the race to lead the party after Gary Doer’s departure.

Unlike the Gang of Five cabinet ministers, Ashton refused to bash Selinger in public, but was quick to organize a leadership campaign when the premier put his job on the line.

By all accounts, he has been the shrewdest player during the entire NDP leadership debacle. He’s even gone as far as to compliment his leadership challengers during the campaign while championing himself as the only candidate who can unite the party.

If he wins, he will cap off a long political career with at least a year as premier. If he loses, he’s still very likely to be renamed to cabinet. And since he holds a very safe seat (Thompson), he may sit in the legislature long after his two opponents have departed the political scene.

 

Greg Selinger

PERSONAL: Married with two grown sons. He’s 64 years old. Has a PhD from the London School of Economics. Once taught in the social work faculty at the University of Manitoba.

POLITICAL RESUMé: Former Winnipeg city councillor, 10-year finance minister under Gary Doer and premier since October 2009. MLA for St. Boniface since 1999.

CAMPAIGN PROMISES INCLUDE: No major promises except to carry on with the government agenda as set out in last fall’s throne speech.

LIKELY MESSAGE TO CONVENTION DELEGATES: I have led you to victory once before, and I can do it again in 2016 if we stay united. The Manitoba economy is expected to outperform the rest of the country in the next year. Our policies and programs are working. We are training our youth for the workforce. We are building roads and protecting Manitobans from flooding and creating good jobs in the process. Let’s keep it up. If Manitobans are working and see opportunities for their kids here, they will continue to vote for us.

IN HIS FAVOUR: Many New Democrats believe he has earned the right to lead the party into the next election, and he should get to leave on his own terms.

WORKING AGAINST HIM: Many NDPers also believe he can’t win in 2016. They think he lost too much credibility when he decided to raise the provincial sales tax by a percentage point two years ago without consulting Manitobans — and after promising in the last election not to do so.

NOTABLE SUPPORTERS: Playwright Bruce McManus; big labour’s Paul Moist (president of the Canadian Union of Public Employees) and Jeff Traeger (president of Local 832 of the United Food and Commercial Workers union); much of his current cabinet, including Justice Minister James Allum, Family Services Minister Kerri Irvin-Ross and Health Minister Sharon Blady.

HOW HE CAN WIN: Surviving the first ballot and hoping Ashton is his opponent in the second round.

CHANCES OF KEEPING HIS JOB: Needs to prepare a victory speech AND a concession speech.

Theresa Oswald

PERSONAL: Born and raised in St. Vital. Married with one son. She’s 48 years old. Taught high school English at Glenlawn Collegiate and was later vice-principal at Victor Mager School in the Louis Riel School Division.

POLITICAL RESUMé: MLA for Seine River since 2003, the first New Democrat to win the southeast Winnipeg constituency. Named to cabinet in 2004 as healthy living minister. Served seven years as health minister and a year as jobs and the economy minister before resigning from cabinet last November.

CAMPAIGN PROMISES INCLUDE: More support for new Canadians and victims of domestic violence; boosting welfare housing allowances to 75 per cent of median market rates; creating a provincial pension plan for those who lack a pension; increasing efforts to make workplaces safe.

LIKELY MESSAGE TO CONVENTION DELEGATES: I have the necessary experience, having held challenging portfolios. Manitobans are looking for change, and I can represent that change without forcing voters to change parties. I have the best chance of beating Tory Leader Brian Pallister and his party in the next election.

IN HER FAVOUR: She’s younger than her two male baby-boomer opponents — not to mention Pallister — and a better public speaker. She’s also had the support of many senior government advisers throughout the campaign who will likely be a force on the convention floor this weekend.

WORKING AGAINST HER: Many New Democrats believe Oswald and her fellow Gang of Five members betrayed the party by speaking publicly against the leader.

NOTABLE SUPPORTERS: Former cabinet ministers Jennifer Howard, Andrew Swan, Stan Struthers and Erin Selby, the other Gang of Five members; election campaign guru Michael Balagus, who has agreed to quarterback the NDP’s 2016 campaign effort if Oswald is chosen leader; many senior government political staffers. The International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers union (IBEW).

HOW SHE CAN WIN: The key is surviving the first ballot. If she does that, she probably has better-than-even odds of becoming the province’s 22nd premier.

CHANCES OF WINNING THE LEADERSHIP: See above.

Steve Ashton

PERSONAL: Married with two grown children. He’s 59 years old. Studied political science at the University of Manitoba and received an MA in economics from Lakehead University. Lectured in economics before his election in 1981 as MLA for Thompson.

POLITICAL RESUMé: MLA for more than 33 years. Cabinet minister since 1999. Has held portfolios too numerous to list, including infrastructure and transportation and emergency measures. Best known as the government’s point man on flood control and flood prevention.

CAMPAIGN PROMISES INCLUDE: A provincial referendum on the NDP’s 2013 sales tax increase; increased transfers to the City of Winnipeg and other municipalities to support infrastructure; making Manitoba the champion of a universally accessible national child-care program.

LIKELY MESSAGE TO CONVENTION DELEGATES: I am the best candidate to lead a united party into the next election. I will be the candidate for all Manitobans, rural and urban and new Canadians.

IN HIS FAVOUR: He is the enemy of neither the pro-Selinger forces nor the Gang of Five. Many New Democrats believe he best represents the party’s ideals.

WORKING AGAINST HIM: He’s seen as a bit of a maverick. Many question his ability to lead the NDP to victory. He also lost to Selinger in the last leadership contest in 2009.

NOTABLE SUPPORTERS: Manitoba’s firefighters; United Steelworkers; five backbench MLAs including Dave Gaudreau, Jim Maloway, Christine Melnick, Bidhu Jha and Tom Nevakshonoff.

HOW HE CAN WIN: Being the clear front-runner after the first ballot and hoping neither Selinger’s supporters nor Oswald’s can stomach voting for the other candidate. If Selinger fails to survive the first round of voting, Ashton will likely pick up support from the Maples (117 delegates). If Oswald doesn’t survive the first round, he could pick up most of the youth vote (92 delegates).

CHANCES OF WINNING THE LEADERSHIP: Likely first-ballot survivor. After that, who knows?

 

larry.kusch@freepress.mb.ca bruce.owen@freepress.mb.ca