The ultimate job interview

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 09/07/2015 (3781 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Years ago, when I first was out in the job market, I got a great piece of advice: don’t pretend to be someone you’re not just to get a job. Your employer needs to know who you really are to make sure you’re a good fit for the task at hand. Wise words.

It would appear Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau has heeded this advice as well. In Winnipeg last weekend for a town hall meeting and some good old-fashioned meet-and-greets, Trudeau made it clear he’s going to run this election his way, and if it resonates with the voters, so be it. If it doesn’t? Well…

It’s clear Winnipeg is on the radar for both the Liberals and the Conservatives, with a number of Conservative incumbents not seeking re-election, leaving their seats up for grabs. The Conservatives have been dumping money into ridings across Manitoba in this last week, trying to warm the hearts of the electorate. In a two-day period earlier this week, there were five funding announcements for Manitoba made by the Conservatives.

Meanwhile, Trudeau was the first of the major party’s leaders to stop by in the summer break. No doubt he read the polling numbers released last weekend that suggest there is a contagion effect from the NDP debacle on Broadway. The Orange Wave ridden by federal leader Tom Mulcair hasn’t been found here — that is if you can believe early polling numbers. And when questioned about the polling numbers, Trudeau downplayed them, likely because his own numbers have dipped nationally. Instead, he made it clear the election win will come down to putting feet on the ground, knocking on doors and getting out into the community.

This is supposed to be one of the toughest elections in Canada’s history and the most expensive in terms of advertising. Trudeau remains adamant his party won’t go negative because it just creates more cynicism and turns voters off. The NDP’s Mulcair has also said he won’t fight dirty.

But that won’t stop interest groups from doing the nasty work for them, with the formation of political actions committees or PACs. An American convention now operating in Canada, PACs are third parties that buy advertising to support or oppose a political party.

Mulcair and Trudeau’s strategy to stay positive while third-party advertisers through PACs “go negative” may be a sound one. Research conducted by political scientists Conor Dowling and Amber Wichowsky in the United States found in the 2012 presidential elections 85 per cent of ads sponsored by groups were negative — attacking one candidate and not naming the other. Their numbers show third-party advertising in the U.S. is increasingly negative when compared to advertising in the 1980s and ’90s, allowing the candidates to keep their hands clean when the mudslinging begins. As Dowling and Wichowsky determined in their study, there is some evidence candidates benefit when group ads (and not the candidates) do the attacking.

While much has been written about negative ads suppressing the vote and increasing voter cynicism, more recent research suggests negative ads can mobilize voters and signal important election issues. In Canada, the 2011 election campaign was considered to be an extremely nasty one, with Conservatives lobbing attack ads against then-Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff who responded somewhat late in the game with negative ads of his own. Guess what? Our voter turnout increased in 2011 — albeit slightly. So, there goes that theory (for now).

Harper has been down this road before. His war room is effective in cutting his opposition down to size and getting the vote out. He decimated Ignatieff and made mincemeat of former Liberal leader Stéphane Dion. This election, though, has two significant differences. One that may work against the Conservatives and one that may help them out.

First, polling numbers show Mulcair potentially winning power, which means Harper now has to fight on two fronts. He can emasculate Trudeau, but by doing so, he risks building Mulcair’s lead. He can take down Mulcair, but that may benefit the Liberals. It’s an interesting conundrum and one that has seldom been seen in Canadian politics. The last time the NDP was a front-runner in a Canadian election was in 1988, when then-leader Ed Broadbent performed well in the polls before coming in third to Progressive Conservative leader Brian Mulroney and Liberal leader John Turner.

The second condition that may actually help Harper is the new ridings. A change in electoral boundaries means the number of seats up for grabs in October is now 338, up by 30 seats. Most of those new seats are in provinces in which the Conservatives enjoy strong support — B.C., Alberta and Ontario. True, the NDP election in Alberta may have changed that dynamic somewhat, but the blogger ThreeHundredEight.com (note: time to change your blog name) suggests in Alberta, the federal Conservatives are still showing strong support.

Winnipeg Free Press | Newsletter

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It’s early. The real campaign doesn’t start in earnest until after Labour Day. There are still a ton of tricks up the politicians’ sleeves as they work the doorsteps and the airwaves to try and convince voters to hire them as their political representatives come October. And the old adage remains true: the only poll that really matters is election day.

Shannon Sampert is the Free Press perspectives and politics editor.

shannon.sampert@freepress.mb.ca Twitter: @paulysigh