Surprise, surprise

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This article was published 01/08/2015 (3888 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Quick — everyone who thought the Winnipeg Blue Bombers would be 3-3 after an early schedule that included road games in Regina, Calgary and Edmonton, raise your hand?

Liars.

 

While the first third of the season hasn’t been without its potholes — and a couple of car-swallowing sinkholes in the form of a 52-26 loss to Hamilton and a 32-3 loss to Edmonton — the fact this football team has emerged from what is arguably the toughest part of its schedule with a .500 record is reason for optimism.

Just ask Bombers head coach Mike O’Shea.

“We’ve got a long way to go, but we’re getting there,” O’Shea said after his club got back to .500 with a gritty 23-13 win Thursday over the B.C. Lions at Investors Group Field.

“It’s a good feeling. It’s a good group of guys who understand what we need to do to improve… They’ll just keep working and improve and get better and better and better. And we’ll see where that takes us.”

Here are our six takes after six games:

 

1. As Drew Willy goes, so go the Winnipeg Blue Bombers

Consider: the Bombers are 3-1 in games in which Willy has finished the game — 0-2 in ones he didn’t. The numbers are even more lopsided when you look at scoring: the Bombers have outscored their opponents 113-102 this season when Willy has been in the game — and gotten shellacked 70-19 when Willy’s been sidelined with injuries.

Two things are crystal-clear. First, the Bombers have an excellent chance of returning to the playoffs for the first time since 2011 if Willy stays healthy. Second, the Bombers have no chance of returning to the playoffs if Willy doesn’t stay healthy this year.

Period.

2. The defence is good — when the offence and special teams give them a chance to be. And they’re getting better every game

Consider: the defence held Calgary QB Bo-Levi Mitchell to just 165 yards passing in Week 4 and had Edmonton’s offence tied up in knots in Week 5 (with an assist from the weather) until Willy got hurt and the entire team came apart.

It says here the Bombers’ defence had its best game of the season this week against B.C.. Yeah, they gave up a lot of yards — 394, including 117 on the ground to B.C. tailback Andrew Harris. But after an opening 95-yard TD drive, B.C. couldn’t convert the rest of their yards into anything more than two field goals. The Bombers’ defence bent but didn’t break and got the big plays in the form of three interceptions.

 

3. It’s starting to feel a lot like home

The Bombers had a terrible home record in their first two seasons at Investors Group Field — going 1-8 in 2013 and 3-6 last year.

But they’ve got a winning home record at 2-1 this season and you can’t help but wonder if that lone loss at home to Hamilton in Week 2 might have gone into the win column if Willy had stayed healthy that night.

The crowds haven’t been huge — averaging 26,699 through three home dates. But the fans have been crazy loud now that the Bombers have been giving them something to cheer about and it’s translating into an advantage on the field, including Thursday when Lions QB Travis Lulay struggled all night to be heard and took a costly time-count penalty because of the noise.

 

4. Special teams need to stop hurting this team

They’ve already given up a punt return TD, a blocked punt for a TD and fumbled a punt return against Calgary in Week 4 that led to a touchdown and sparked the Stampeders’ comeback. They’ve also botched a fake punt, taken all kinds of crazy drive-extending penalties on third down and their kicker has struggled to make converts, which proved to be the difference in one of their three losses.

This same special teams unit also blocked a punt and scored a TD against Montreal, but in a ledger of game-breaking plays, the special teams have given up a lot more than they’ve made this season and it’s time to press the reset button.

 

5. Darvin Adams might be the import wideout Winnipeg has been waiting for since the departure of Chris Matthews

The Bombers never did find an effective replacement last season for the 2012 CFL rookie of the year, who was last seen scoring TDs in February’s Super Bowl for the Seattle Seahawks.

But they might have finally found the game-breaking threat Matthews was in Adams, who Bombers GM Kyle Walters rescued from the free-agent scrap heap over the winter.

Adams has TDs of 79 and 56 yards and almost everything he catches seems to go for 30 yards and more — his four catches against B.C. went for 56, 36, 33 and 12 yards.

 

6. It’s all about the turnovers, stupid

There are a million ways to dissect a football game and a football team, but the CFL stats department dug up a stat this week that suggests the only factor that really matters with this Bombers team is whether they win the turnover battle.

Consider: with the win over B.C. — in which Winnipeg won the turnover battle 3-0 — the Bombers are 32-8 since 2009 in games in which they win the turnover battle.

And what about all the games when they don’t win the turnover battle, you ask? Avert your eyes — Winnipeg is 8-66.

Want to watch your team at home in the Grey Cup in November? Then just cheer for them to win the turnover battle every week.

paul.wiecek@freepress.mb.ca

Twitter: @PaulWiecek