Ominous signs? Just chill out

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This article was published 21/08/2015 (3791 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

It has the makings of a heavyweight fight. In one corner is Mother Nature — in the other, government powerhouse Environment Canada.

The title at stake? The long-term winter forecast.

It’s only the third week of August, and Mother Nature is throwing out all kinds of warning signs — leaves are turning, geese are gathering and crops and fruit are ripening early. Even the Old Farmer’s Almanac is getting in its shots — predicting a harsh and snowy winter for much of the United States in 2015-16. That includes below normal temperatures in the U.S. Midwest south of Manitoba, raising the spectre of a repeat of the worst winter on record from two years ago.

But Environment Canada is hardly breaking a sweat amid the flurry of climate cataclysms.

“Nature really doesn’t have a crystal ball to see into the future,” Dave Phillips, Environment Canada’s senior climatologist, said. “Most weather people would pooh-pooh these signs of nature.”

In fact, Phillips said Environment Canada is predicting milder-than-normal temperatures for the Prairies this winter due to a super-sized El Nino weather system building over the Pacific.

“This thing is so big that nothing is going to swamp it,” he said. “It’s the Bruce Lee of El Ninos.”

That means we’ll likely see more milder winds from the west and south than persistent ear-freezing air blasting down from the Arctic.

“You may get a break this year,” Phillips said. “You may be sitting this winter out. Maybe snowmobilers won’t like it.”

While the government forecasters are chilling, others point to signs warning of the cold. And some blame the smoke from the July forest fires for messing with the rhythm of a Manitoba summer, causing temperatures to drop a few degrees on the worst days and upsetting the balance of nature.

“The warning signs are there for an early fall,” said Taz Stuart, an entomologist with Poulin’s Pest Control Services.

Stuart points to the abundance of wasps, feeding a few weeks earlier than normal, as one sign summer is rapidly coming to a close. Poulin’s has seen the number of complaints of wasps almost double from last year.

Wendy Erlanger, summer co-ordinator of Fruit Share, a volunteer-led organization dedicated to harvesting fresh fruit in Manitoba, said backyard apple trees are already ripe for picking.

“Everyone is completely perplexed,” Erlanger said. “Acorns are already falling from the trees. There is something wrong this summer. Everything ripened too soon and too early.”

The latest farm report from the province says crops are maturing rapidly across Manitoba due to last week’s above normal temperatures, and current weather conditions allow for “excellent harvest progress” to be made. Many farmers have already said if conditions hold, they expect a bumper crop compared to their colleagues in Saskatchewan and Alberta, who are fighting drought conditions.

Phillips said what might be behind the fear of a coming lousy winter is guilt.

Temperatures this summer have been about one-half degree above normal and rainfall has been 85 per cent of normal, he said.

“It’s been the Goldilocks of conditions,” Phillips said. “Maybe people are just thinking that they’re going to pay for it.”

bruce.owen@freepress.mb.ca