Micro-targeting is a political tool that can help parties win

Opinion

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 27/08/2015 (3665 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

If you believe in polls, this federal election is one of the tightest races in modern Canadian political history.

The latest polling numbers released this week suggest it’s just too close to tell. All three parties are in a statistical tie.

There is no front-runner and no clear runner-up, unlike in years past, when the Liberals and the Conservative duked it out for first position and the NDP languished behind in third (until 2011, when the NDP and Liberals traded spots). But today, it’s a nail-biter, and it has been that way for quite some time.

Which is why now, more than ever, political parties have to be smart about their message, their brand and who they are targeting. Parties scan obituaries, letters to the editors and twitter feeds to determine where the pockets of voters may be. And the strategy can pay off: In 2011, the Tories increased their popular support in Ontario by five per cent but increased their seat count by 22 helping them with a majority win.

Increasingly, we are seeing the use of micro-targeting as the tool of choice for political parties trying to make headway, particularly in specific ridings. Micro-targeting allows political parties to determine voter’s intentions and helps determine what policy ideas may work to win an individual’s support.

For example, if you want to make inroads within close ridings populated with young, affluent and suburban families, you roll out specific policies with political messaging that will enhance the likelihood that folks will vote your way. This is why we’re seeing boutique tax cuts and incentives. It doesn’t cost a lot to provide tax cuts for service club members, but it may mean they’ll vote Tory this time around.

Former U.S. president George Bush relied on micro-targeting in his campaign in 2004. In 2010, reports indicate the Democrats used US$10 million to construct a voter database that would allow President Barack Obama’s political team to accurately and effectively micro-target voters.

In 2011 in Canada, the Conservatives began to rely heavily on the principles of micro-targeting. They weren’t alone. Other parties tried it to some degree, but the Conservatives were considered the most sophisticated to utilize the expensive political tool and it helped them win a conclusive victory.

Many political observers have suggested it was micro-targeting that allowed the Tories to grab the ethnic votes, taking away a traditional voting base from the Liberals in 2011.

How does it work? Well, one software package can analyze a database of voter names to determine gender and ethnicity. Large South Asian Canadian population? Bombard that riding with campaign literature underscoring inter-generational family units and global community affiliations. Affluent ridings with lots of stay-at-home moms — hit them hard with political messaging about income splitting.

Focusing on individual polls to ensure campaign success is not particularly new. Campaign managers know to ignore the polls in which there is a high percentage of apartment buildings because transient populations don’t vote. In ridings with a lot of senior citizens’ homes, campaign workers make sure transportation is provided to get them to their polling stations.

What is new is the technology that can be used to enhance campaign effectiveness.

Your Twitter feeds, survey responses, Facebook likes and affiliations, even what you watch on television all become important data mining tools for political parties. In Canada, unlike the U. S., privacy laws and campaign spending limits curtail some of the Big Brother aspects to micro-targeting, but make no mistake, it is very much in use in this election.

There may be naysayers who suggest this goes against the idea of democracy for everyone, with small slices of the electorate being given a disproportionate amount of attention, but others suggest it may improve voter turnout, making parties more responsive to the electorate and promoting the grassroots.

And for political parties where the difference in percentage of support between a win and a loss can sometimes be counted on one hand (think in the last election of the close races in Elmwood Transcona, Winnipeg North and Winnipeg South Centre) every little bit counts.

Winnipeg Free Press | Newsletter

Dan Lett | Not for Attribution

Tuesdays

A weekly look at politics close to home and around the world.

Sign up for Dan Lett | Not for Attribution

Sign Up

I agree to the Terms and Conditions, Cookie and Privacy Policies, and CASL agreement.

And micro-targeting provides a window for parties desperate for a win come Oct. 19.

Shannon Sampert is the perspectives and politics editor at the Winnipeg Free Press.

shannon.sampert@freepress.mb.ca

Twitter: @paulysigh