Neighbourhoods vote in pockets, 2011 election results show

By: Inayat Singh Posted: 3:00 AM CDT Wednesday, Sep. 23, 2015

You're likely to vote along with your neighbours because of the "ecological reality" of your community, but chances are you don't vote the same as someone in the other end of the riding.

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You're likely to vote along with your neighbours because of the "ecological reality" of your community, but chances are you don't vote the same as someone in the other end of the riding.

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Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 23/09/2015 (3726 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Divided riding: Elmwood-Transcona

Election results by polling division from 2011 for Elmwood-Transcona. The black outline marks the new boundary for the riding being used in this year’s election.

You’re likely to vote along with your neighbours because of the "ecological reality" of your community, but chances are you don’t vote the same as someone in the other end of the riding.

Election results at the polling division level from 2011 show how Winnipeg’s ridings are sharply divided, with neighbourhoods that vote differently grouped together in the same riding.

Take Elmwood-Transcona, for instance. In 2011, most of the western parts of the riding in Elmwood voted largely for the NDP, while the eastern Transcona part voted for the Conservatives, except for pockets in central Transcona. The riding had one of the closest races in Manitoba, with Tory Lawrence Toet winning by 300 votes.

NDP Daniel Blaikie and Lawrence Toet signs cover Elmwood-Transcona, which was a very close race in the 2011 election. (Boris Minkevich / Winnipeg Free Press)

It’s a pattern that repeats itself in other city ridings. In Winnipeg North, for instance, Liberal support in the 2011 was grouped around the western portion of the riding, in neighbourhoods such as Tyndall Park, Inkster and the Maples. The North End, in the eastern part of the riding, voted largely NDP.

In Saint Boniface (now Saint Boniface-Saint Vital), while most of the riding voted Conservative, Old St. Boniface was a pocket of Liberal support.

Divided ridings

Map: See how your neighbours voted in our map of 2011 federal election results for Winnipeg by polling division. Click on a polling division to see which riding it was in for the 2011 election and which candidate placed first there.

The black outline reflects riding boundaries for the 2015 federal election.

‘Ecological reality’

"Things like income levels, things like home ownership, whether you’re a renter or an owner, those things tend to come together in certain neighbourhoods," said Royce Koop, a University of Manitoba political science professor. "So if you have a neighbourhood that’s poor, and that’s something that’s important to vote choice, those people are going to vote in similar ways."

Koop said the ecological reality of these neighbourhoods leads to pockets that vote alike. It’s a divide that is playing out in Elmwood-Transcona in the current election, with voters of different backgrounds planning to vote differently.

Different priorities

"I didn’t really get much help when I first moved to Winnipeg," said Jean Shewchuk, who lives on George Suttie Bay in Elmwood and was sent to a residential school when she was a child because she was aboriginal. "I believe the NDP can uplift aboriginal people — that’s why I’m voting for him," she said, pointing at her lawn sign for Daniel Blaikie, the NDP candidate.

In Transcona, John Pennington plans to vote for Toet and is unfazed by the NDP putting up a star candidate.

"Bill Blaikie pushed (for his son) Daniel, but I have always voted Conservative and I support Lawrence Toet," Pennington said. He has volunteered at Toet’s campaign office and may help out on election day.

"Local campaigns are not as much about convincing people to vote, there’s more of an emphasis on getting people out to vote — finding supporters and then making sure they actually get out to the polls," Koop said.

Based on this reality, Koop said it was likely the NDP would focus its campaign in Elmwood and the Conservatives in Transcona. However, in a riding that was so close in 2011, campaigns also have incentives to expand beyond their support base.

"Local campaigns are not well adapted to… turning people over to your side," Koop said. "At the same time, in a hard-fought campaign, and this was a very hard-fought campaign… you may just see the candidates going everywhere. And they need to go everywhere."

inayat.singh@freepress.mb.ca