New EKOS poll shows Conservatives jumping ahead in federal campaign

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This article was published 24/09/2015 (3725 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

OTTAWA — For the first time in this election, a national poll suggests this isn’t a three-horse race after all.

An EKOS poll conducted for La Presse newspaper in Montreal has the Conservatives jumping in front with 35.4 per cent of voters. It is a commanding nine-point lead over the second place Liberals, who has 26.3 per cent. The NDP is in third with 24.5 per cent.

The poll was conducted between Sept. 17 and Sept. 22 and is considered accurate within two points, 19 times out of 20.

It is the first poll since the campaign began that suggests the Conservatives could win another majority government, and was taken on the heels of the leaders’ debate on the economy and the Conservative decision to appeal to the Supreme Court a lower court ruling overturning the Conservative edict that face-coverings like niqabs cannot be worn at citizenship ceremonies.

Although Prime Minister Stephen Harper appeared to struggle in the first half of the campaign, he seems to have hit his stride since he was able to announce Sept. 14 that his government had balanced the budget in 2014-15. The government originally forecast a $2 billion deficit for that year.

At the beginning of September, several polls in a row had the Conservatives running third.

EKOS pollster Frank Graves said Thursday 35 per cent is verging on majority territory for the Conservatives. In 2011, the Conservatives won a majority with 39.6 per cent of the vote. In, 2008 they won a minority with 37.7 per cent. In 2006, they won a minority with 36.3 per cent.

The EKOS poll was counter to two other national polls released Thursday. Nanos Research daily tracking poll had the three main parties locked in a dead heat with the Liberals at 31.5 per cent, the NDP at 30.8 per cent and the Conservatives at 30.5 per cent.

A Leger Marketing poll had the Liberals at 31.6 per cent, the Conservatives at 31.5 per cent and the NDP at 29.1 per cent.

In Manitoba, people were cautious about the latest numbers, noting it is one poll and is vastly different from the others. Graves himself acknowledge on Twitter Thursday it could possible be a “rogue” poll, and said he was “puzzled” by the discrepancies between his results and the others.

Winnipeg Free Press | Newsletter

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Graves defended his methodology.

“We’ve had every federal election correct except last one,” he tweeted. “Didn’t see majority.”

Graves could not be reached for an interview Thursday.

Some Liberals acknowledged feeling dismayed by the EKOS numbers but also see it as a potential opportunity.

The Liberals and NDP are duking it out for top spot as the alternative to the sitting Conservative government and neither has been able to break away as the clear winner in that race.